A rookie of the year showdown, a Browns offensive revival and the best bets of Week 8

Last week was a losing week. If not for nan Carolina Panthers, it would person been an unprofitable one.

Instead, laying other units connected nan Washington Commanders served arsenic our 1 winning stake successful 5 mixed tries, covering nan losses successful a failure-filled weekend. That made us, for 1 week, nan slightest absorbing bettors successful nan world — not bad capable to fade, not bully capable to make immoderate money.

Still, a neutral week is amended than a losing 1 and, by nan powers of nan Rhode Island Scumbag and myself combined, we’re still up 7 units complete 7 weeks. That is, astatine nan very least, sandwich money.

We caput backmost into nan breach successful a week filled pinch lopsided betting lines. Let’s effort and find immoderate value. Scumbag study is successful blockquotes below. My non-Scumbag picks follow.

Results of past week’s proposal were surely a mixed bag. Washington emphatically took attraction of business contempt losing Jayden Daniels fundamentally disconnected nan jump, Minnesota dropped a reliable 1 successful a thrilling backmost and distant crippled pinch Detroit, and New England gave america a 4th of mendacious dream earlier remembering they are expected to beryllium unspeakable this twelvemonth and adjusting accordingly.

This week, I proceed to effort and find exploitative matchups arsenic we move into Week 8. Christian and I person shared immoderate bully fortunes lately pinch our associated choices. I’m hoping we tin debar doing truthful again this week, because I’m tired of him piggybacking connected my champion bets and winning alongside me.

I conjecture I tin return immoderate comfortableness knowing that imitation is nan sincerest shape of flattery. On to nan picks! [Ed. note: Rude. I’m disconnected nan Broncos now because of this.]

Baltimore Ravens astatine Cleveland Browns OVER 44.5 points (one unit)

The Ravens discourtesy has been humming on this season, averaging a convention precocious 31.1 points per game. Uncharacteristically, however, their defense is averaging giving up 25.7 ppg, tied for sixth worst successful nan NFL.

Cleveland connected nan different hand, has not had nan aforesaid occurrence connected offense, chiefly owed to a wholly ineffective Deshawn Watson. With Jameis Winston taking over, this discourtesy whitethorn person immoderate caller life. Will this QB alteration beryllium capable to spur nan Browns to victory? Most apt not nan case. However, we’ll spot capable of an violative jump successful pinch Jameis moving nan show to make this complete attainable.

Green Bay Packers (-4) astatine Jacksonville Jaguars (one unit)

Green Bay is coming disconnected a large triumph against Houston and looks to support nan momentum going successful Jacksonville this week. Green Bay’s walk defense was peculiarly reliable connected C.J. Stroud and now sets its sights connected Trevor Lawrence. Jacksonville showed immoderate conflict past week successful London, scoring 25 consecutive points aft being down 10 successful nan first 4th en way to a 32-16 triumph complete nan soft New England Patriots.

Unfortunately for Jacksonville, if Green Bay starts nan measurement New England did past week, they won’t beryllium capable to support it close. The Packers’ weapons dwarf thing nan Patriots person to connection and could move this crippled into a way meet.

One measurement Jacksonville could make this a crippled is pinch a formidable tally onslaught led by Tank Bigsby. Joe Mixon led nan measurement past week for Houston, and Bigsby could return akin advantage of nan Green Bay tally defense. Ultimately, I deliberation Green Bay is excessively overmuch for Jacksonville, and ends up covering nan four-point spread.

Denver Broncos (-9) vs Carolina Panthers (two units)

Carolina has been an NFL afterthought this season. The wheels wholly came disconnected past week successful a drubbing astatine nan hands of nan Washington Commanders. When it rains, it pours; successful this case, starting Bryce Young aft Andy Dalton sprained his thumb successful a car mishap against a defense that virtually had Spencer Rattler service crawling for his life past Thursday.

Could Bryce person figured thing retired during his astir caller benching? Possibly. Will it matter facing nan Denver defense successful Colorado? Probably not.

Bo Nix has been capable arsenic a crippled manager, and their tally crippled had their champion week of nan play against nan Saints past Thursday. This seems for illustration specified a slam dunk, truthful don’t beryllium amazed if Bryce Young turns into Steve Young and makes this Scumbag look for illustration an absolute fool. I’m throwing be aware (and 2 units) to nan upwind and putting my religion successful Denver keeping their momentum rolling.

Last week: 1-2, +0 units
Season to date: 12-10-1 (.543), -1 unit

The Bears would person been my prime moreover pinch a patient Jayden Daniels. But nan rookie of nan twelvemonth frontrunner is nursing a sore rib and, importantly, has ne'er faced an NFL defense for illustration Chicago’s. The Bears rank 3rd successful expected points added (EPA) allowed per play. Washington has yet to look a squad successful 2024 that rates higher than 16th.

On nan different broadside of nan coin, Caleb Williams was ascending moreover earlier past week’s bye. That gives a bad coach (Matt Eberflus) clip to overthink things, but nan talent level present should insulate him from immoderate doofus determination he makes early that backfires spectacularly. The Commanders defense, it should beryllium noted, ranks 25th successful EPA/play allowed. Maybe Daniels makes maine look foolish, but this feels for illustration nan Bears are being undervalued (despite being, tragically, nan Bears).

The Bengals’ statement dropped slow complete nan people of nan week, which is understandable. Cincinnati’s defense is astir arsenic businesslike arsenic Washington’s. But Joe Burrow is doing MVP-caliber things and nan Eagles continually look flustered. The smart move present would beryllium to tally Saquon Barkley 30 times against a bad tally defense, but Nick Sirianni has stepped extracurricular nan circle of spot lately.

Thus, 2 bully but flawed teams meet. The 1 pinch nan amended backmost is laying only 1.5 points astatine home. That looks bully to me.

Last week: 1-2, +0 units
Season to date: 12-7 (.632), +8 units