ANDREW NEIL: If Trump does win, it'll be thanks to a simply staggering failure (and, really, Kamala should have seen it coming!)

If Donald Trump ends up backmost successful nan White House — which would make him nan first president since Grover Cleveland successful 1893 to service 2 non-consecutive position — his triumph will beryllium down to galore factors.

A rose-tinted position of nan system nether Trump earlier nan pandemic struck.

The punishing inflation of nan Biden years, which pillaged nan pocketbooks of mean Americans each clip they went to bargain state aliases groceries.

The inability of Kamala Harris – who was abruptly sprung connected nan American group erstwhile nan Democratic elite decided to dump Joe Biden – to gel pinch voters aliases dispel nan wide conception that she was really a spot of a clunker.

But possibly Trump will beryllium it astir to 1 rumor supra each others: forbidden immigration.

Six retired of 10 Americans spot migration arsenic 'very important' successful deciding really they will vote, according to nan Pew Research Center. Those astir concerned astir nan rumor overwhelmingly complaint Trump arsenic much apt to tackle it than Harris.

Illegal migration — sometimes euphemistically referred to by liberals arsenic 'undocumented migration' — is nan astir visible nonaccomplishment of nan Biden-Harris years.

It is nonaccomplishment connected a staggering scale.

US Border Patrol records 'encounters' pinch migrants who participate nan state illegally aliases tried a ineligible way but were deemed inadmissible. Since Biden-Harris took agency successful January 2021, location person been a grounds 10m specified encounters, nan immense mostly coming crossed nan south-west onshore separator pinch Mexico. During nan Trump years location were 2.4 cardinal specified encounters.

Trump claims 21 cardinal illegals person swarmed into America nether Biden-Harris but has ne'er provided a root for that figure. No matter. The charismatic figures are bad enough.

Crucially, they don't see those who've slipped into nan state undetected, which adds astatine slightest different 1.5 cardinal to nan 10 cardinal who are known about.

The Department of Homeland Security estimates 11 cardinal forbidden migrants were surviving successful nan US arsenic of January 2022. That is apt to beryllium an underestimate. The truth is cipher knows nan existent figure. Illegal migrants do not spell astir advertizing their address.

America, of course, is famously a federation of immigrants. It will proceed to invited group successful important numbers from each complete nan world for nan foreseeable future. But nan nationalist statement is overwhelmingly for controlled immigration which is legal, orderly and successful numbers nan state tin comfortably absorb.

There is wide anger that America has mislaid power of its borders and needs to get a grip.

The rumor is particularly toxic for Harris. Biden put her successful complaint of tightening nan confederate separator successful nan early days of nan administration. It was thing of a Hail Mary walk but she didn't thief herself: erstwhile asked months into her ngo why she still hadn't visited nan confederate border, she snippily replied that she hadn't visited Europe either.

The truth is she achieved thing arsenic Biden's 'border tsar'. She moreover took to denying she ever had nan job, though nan grounds is clear that she did. As nan 2024 predetermination approached, nan management started issuing executive orders which toughened separator controls. The numbers crossing illegally has dropped.

But that simply begs nan mobility why specified steps weren't taken correct from nan start. The logic is revealing.

Biden-Harris presided complete a lax migration authorities because they thought it would entreaty to nan millions of Hispanic and achromatic voters which dress up specified a important portion of nan Democratic coalition. This only showed really retired of touch they were.

Recent arrivals, who've waited patiently to participate nan state legally and mightiness now beryllium struggling – successful menial jobs connected minimum costs – to supply for their families, are nan ones astir angered by a wide influx of illegals, because it is their jobs that are astir astatine risk.

The 'let 'em each in' mob of well-heeled bloviators who predominate broadcasting successful America person thing to lose. Their jobs are not connected nan line. But those successful unskilled jobs connected debased salary are correct to beryllium worried, because unscrupulous employers mightiness good switch them pinch caller migrants connected moreover little pay.

It is simply a awesome logic why Trump is winning much Hispanic and achromatic votes — particularly among men — than is normal for a Republican, a displacement successful voting habits which could good make nan quality betwixt triumph aliases conclusion for Trump.

A caller NBC/Telemundo canvass showed support for Harris among Hispanics astatine 54 percent versus 40 percent for Trump. A 14-point lead mightiness look awesome but astatine this shape successful nan 2020 campaign, Biden had a 36-point advantage among Hispanics.

Trump doesn't request a mostly of Hispanic votes to triumph – conscionable capable to make nan quality successful nan swing states which are truthful adjacent that moreover nan displacement of conscionable a mates of 1000 votes could find nan result. Immigration could beryllium conscionable nan rumor which tilts matters Trump's measurement by expanding his support among Hispanics and blacks.

MSNBC, nan main broadcasting limb of nan Democratic Party, was forced to face this uncomfortable truth unrecorded on-air past week erstwhile galore achromatic and Hispanic voters successful nan plaything authorities pinch nan astir electoral assemblage votes, Pennsylvania, made it clear they were voting for Trump because they wanted a President who would return backmost power of nan country's borders.

Some complained of 'illegal aliens' taking their jobs. Others wondered aloud astir nan constituent of a ineligible migration process if millions could breach it pinch impunity. Some moreover backed Trump's argumentation of wide deportation of illegals (even if that is improbable ever to happen).

I fishy nan MSNBC anchors are still successful a authorities of shock.

There was a clip erstwhile nan wide influx of forbidden migrants was mostly an rumor for hard-pressed separator states. Until their governors, for illustration Greg Abbott of Texas, came up pinch nan ingenious thought of bussing nan migrants to cities whose Democratic mayors had virtue-signaled they were 'sanctuary' cities who welcomed illegals migrants.

They soon changed their tune erstwhile tens of thousands were dumped successful nan halfway of New York, Chicago, San Francisco, Washington DC and different cities. Soon nan mayors were pleading pinch nan separator states to nonstop nary much because they were already afloat up. New York's boasting astir being a sanctuary costs it astir $1.5 cardinal past year.

Moreover, group acold from nan separator could now spot nan consequences of uncontrolled forbidden migration connected their ain doorstep.

Texas unsocial has sent almost 120,000 migrants to sanctuary cities crossed nan country, including 45,000 to New York. The governmental consequences person been immense, turning forbidden migration into a nationalist issue.

Every morning, I walk nan iconic Roosevelt Hotel, wherever I stayed erstwhile I first visited America successful 1976, successful midtown Manhattan. It closed during nan pandemic and is now being utilized arsenic a clearing halfway and hostelry for migrants. There is now an aerial of menace arsenic men bent astir aimlessly successful huddles, nan full bloc is now a segment of municipality squalor (on Madison Avenue!) and astir of nan shops successful nan vicinity are closed and boarded up.

It is only earthy to consciousness sorry for nan families sitting connected nan sidewalk pinch their suitcases, obscurity to go. But location is besides a backlash of anger astatine those who allowed nan uncontrolled migration which has created these appalling conditions. As nan run enters its last week Harris is still struggling to travel up pinch convincing answers.

America is not unsocial successful having an migrant problem that is changing nan look of politics. It is simply a inclination crossed nan antiauthoritarian world.

It looks for illustration ending nan governmental profession of Justin Trudeau, who has dominated Canadian authorities for truthful agelong but whose individual ratings are now successful nan vessel because of his open-door migration policy. He's abruptly go an advocator of controls but excessively precocious to prevention his skin. Canada's Conservative Party looks group to triumph nan triumph adjacent predetermination and Trudeau's Liberal Party doesn't moreover want him to tally again.

It's already contributed to nan demolition of nan British Conservative Party, who recovered themselves connected nan incorrect extremity of a landslide successful July – partially because, having promised Brexit would bring migration nether control, they proceeded to preside complete nan steepest emergence successful migration ever.

In France, Marine Le Pen's anti-migrant National Rally has replaced nan mainstream center-right party, which now hardly exists. In Italy nan anti-immigration Giorgia Meloni is Prime Minister of nan astir right-wing authorities since nan Second World War. In Germany nan mainstream center-right Christian Democrats person retained their relevance only by tacking to nan robust correct connected immigration.

There is nary different rumor pinch thing for illustration nan powerfulness to disrupt settled ways successful democracies these days than immigration. And now it mightiness beryllium astir to do nan aforesaid successful nan state created by immigrants. It mightiness still not beryllium capable return Trump to power. But without it he'd astir apt person nary chance of a 2nd triumph.