Betting on the election is the hottest new trend. But can prediction markets keep the momentum going?

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Good morning! With nan holidays conscionable astir nan corner, it mightiness not wounded to gain a small other cash. Four group pinch side-hustle acquisition shared tips connected their apical gig recommendations.

In today's large story, betting connected nan statesmanlike predetermination is each nan rage. Can it support nan momentum going?

What's connected deck:

• Markets: Blackstone's leader thinks Trump would beryllium a amended president nan 2nd clip around.
• Tech: Google's net were a large deed pinch investors.
• Business: What a Trump aliases Harris triumph means for nan costs of housing.

But first, wanna bet?

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The large story

Presidential bets

We're little than a week from predetermination day, but 1 group tin already declare victory: betting markets.

Platforms allowing users to stake connected nan US statesmanlike title person go nan surprise prima of predetermination season, writes Business Insider's Matthew Fox. And it could yet alteration really we position immoderate imaginable outcome, not conscionable early elections.

Kalshi, which has attracted much than $100 cardinal successful election-related bets, is presently 1 of nan astir celebrated apps successful nan Apple App Store. The trading app Robinhood besides got successful connected nan action connected Monday.

Kalshi's legal triumph successful October complete nan CFTC to connection predetermination betting paved nan measurement for nan trend. But predictions markets are besides spiking overseas wherever they've existed for years.

Polymarket, which is not disposable to US citizens, has seen $2 cardinal successful wagers this month, up from $533 cardinal successful September, according to The Block. Last year, nan website averaged little than $20 cardinal successful monthly trading volume.

The emergence of election-betting markets hasn't been without controversy.

A "whale" trader betting connected erstwhile President Donald Trump to triumph nan predetermination grabbed headlines and drew conspiracy theories. Polymarket confirmed nan personification was a French national pinch trading acquisition betting connected Trump "based connected individual views of nan election."

The betting market's biggest tests mightiness travel aft nan election.

Supporters of prediction markets opportunity they're more meticulous than accepted polls, citing their expertise to quickly accommodate to nan latest news and nan truth participants are invested successful nan outcome.

This predetermination will service arsenic a bully trial of that theory, arsenic there's a wide spread betwixt nan 2 approaches. Betting markets person Trump arsenic a dense favorite, whereas accepted polls bespeak a tight race.

Should Trump triumph successful a landslide, it could fortify nan lawsuit for utilizing betting markets arsenic a cardinal instrumentality for predetermination analysis. Nate Silver, 1 of nan astir well-known polling analysts, is already an advisor to Polymarket.

But a statesmanlike title only happens erstwhile each 4 years. What astir nan remainder of nan time?

If nan past fewer years person taught america anything, this state loves to gamble. From crypto to meme stocks to sports, young men, successful particular, are happy to stake connected conscionable astir anything.

Prediction markets' business exemplary tin thin into that theme. On Kalshi, you tin presently wager connected whether nan Tesla robotaxi will beryllium released earlier 2026 aliases if nan US will prohibition TikTok earlier May.

News brief

Top headlines

• Why Boeing's $21 cardinal stock waste is an early Christmas coming for Wall Street.
• How Trump vs. Harris is playing retired connected Wall Street.
• The Fed is apt to disappoint markets pinch conscionable 1 much complaint trim this twelvemonth amid world inflation, BlackRock CEO says.
• Microsoft conscionable ramped up its unreality rivalry pinch Google by accusing it of 'shadow campaigns'.
• Snap surges 10% arsenic it gets a awesome boost from AI and paid subscribers.
• Google's been connected an ratio drive. Its caller CFO said it tin 'push a small further.'

3 things successful markets

1. Wall Street has precocious hopes for Meta. Thanks to nan company's AI optimization, analysts mostly expect affirmative figures from Meta's third-quarter net study today. Bank of America has said nan banal is simply a apical AI pick, and investors are keeping an oculus connected AI maturation opportunities.
2. Citadel's playing nan agelong crippled pinch its shorts. Justin Lubell, nan hedge fund's world equities head, said nan firm's longest-running equities group made much money shorting stocks than its semipermanent investments successful caller years. Lubell said nan strategy benefits from the deficiency of title connected nan short side.
3. Two of Wall Street's apical executives estimate connected Trump's bid for a 2nd term. Blackstone CEO Steve Schwarzman, who has endorsed Donald Trump, thinks nan erstwhile president would beryllium "efficient and effective" during his 2nd spell around. Fellow billionaire and Republican mega-donor Ken Griffin expects Trump to triumph adjacent week.

3 things successful tech

1. Can LinkedIn prevention america from hiring hell? The level wants to thief job-seekers use smarter, not harder, by utilizing AI to optimize nan process. The extremity is value complete quantity: LinkedIn hopes you'll use to less jobs, but nan ones you'll plaything for will beryllium amended matches.
2. Amazon Web Services' Graviton chips are thriving. In 2018, AWS launched Graviton, its ain statement of homegrown cardinal processing portion chips for data-center servers. Now, 90% of AWS's largest server customers person go Graviton users, a institution executive told BI.
3. Five Apple Intelligence features you tin effort retired now connected your iPhone. Some of nan highly anticipated AI devices see 1 that helps summarize agelong messages, 1 that limits disruptions, and different that tin edit randos retired of your photos.

3 things successful business

1. How a Trump aliases Harris presidency could effect what you salary for housing. Affordable lodging is 1 of America's apical economical concerns heading into nan election. Here's really each candidate's projected policies would impact lodging supply, first-time location buyers, municipality vs. agrarian housing, and action against large landlords.
2. Alphabet surpassed its third-quarter net expectations. Google's genitor institution delivered thumps connected revenue, net per share, its advertizing business, and Google Cloud revenue. The hunt elephantine is all-in connected AI — CEO Sundar Pichai said much than a 4th of nan company's caller codification is created by AI and past checked by employees.
3. Is X being influenced by Elon Musk aliases its users? Musk is self-proclaimed "super MAGA." And X, nan societal media level he owns, is much apt to show contented from right-leaning accounts, according to reports by The Washington Post and The Wall Street Journal. But it's unclear whether nan level is showing users what they want to spot aliases what Musk wants them to see.

What's happening today

• Meta, Microsoft, Starbucks, and different companies study earnings.
• The Bureau of Economic Analysis publishes Q3 economical maturation data.

The Insider Today team: Dan DeFrancesco, lawman editor and anchor, successful New York. Jordan Parker Erb, editor, successful New York. Hallam Bullock, elder editor, successful London. Milan Sehmbi, fellow, successful London.