CBS News Harris-Trump Poll: All tied up in Pennsylvania

With conscionable a week to go, it's a tied race betwixt Kamala Harris and Donald Trump successful Pennsylvania — nan biggest electoral ballot prize of nan battleground states successful nan 2024 election. 

Trump is helped by voters' antagonistic perceptions of today's economy and by nan truth that much voters deliberation they would beryllium amended disconnected financially pinch him successful nan White House than Harris. When they look back, acold much Pennsylvania voters opportunity things were going good successful nan U.S. during Trump's presidency than opportunity that today. 

Harris leads Trump among voters who opportunity nan authorities of populist and abortion are awesome factors, and she has an separator connected immoderate individual qualities. More deliberation she has nan cognitive wellness to service arsenic president than deliberation Trump does, and voters are much apt to spot Harris' positions arsenic reasonable and to spot Trump's arsenic extreme.  

And while Harris has not convinced astir Pennsylvania voters that she would fortify U.S. populist (Trump hasn't either), somewhat much deliberation Trump will weaken it. 

There's been small activity successful nan title present since September. 

Issues

Looking back, much Pennsylvania voters opportunity things were going good successful nan state erstwhile Trump was president and those who consciousness that measurement are backing him successful large numbers.  Trump maintains his advantage connected who would make group amended disconnected financially and leads Harris large among those who mention nan U.S.-Mexico separator arsenic a awesome facet successful their vote. 

The authorities of populist is simply a awesome facet for Pennsylvania voters too, on pinch different issues, but neither Harris nor Trump person a clear lead connected who would fortify U.S. democracy, should they go president. Slightly much voters deliberation Trump will weaken it than opportunity that astir Harris, and that is peculiarly truthful among those who telephone populist a awesome facet successful their vote. 

Personal qualities

But Trump's positions, much than Harris', are seen arsenic utmost by much Pennsylvania voters, and those who clasp that position are overwhelmingly backing Harris. 

More broadly, much voters for illustration nan measurement Harris handles herself personally than nan measurement Trump does. (Although neither campaigner is liked personally by a mostly of voters).

And this does thief Harris to a degree. Nearly each nan voters who for illustration Harris are voting for her. 

For Trump, though, location are a 4th of voters who dislike nan measurement he handles himself personally but are voting for him anyway, truthful not liking nan measurement Trump behaves is not a disqualifier for many. Only 5% of voters who dislike Harris are backing her. 

Voter groups

In this neck-and-neck race, Harris is performing good pinch galore of nan aforesaid groups President Biden excelled pinch successful 2020, and Trump is retaining overmuch of nan support of those cardinal groups who backed him. 

White voters without a assemblage (more than 4 successful 10 voters present ) proceed to beryllium immoderate of Trump's strongest backers. Most deliberation they will beryllium amended disconnected financially pinch his policies than pinch Harris' and are backing him by a wide margin. 

Harris leads Trump among White voters pinch a assemblage degree, who comprise conscionable complete a 3rd of nan electorate, a group that has been trending much Democratic successful caller elections. 

This CBS News/YouGov study was conducted pinch a statewide typical sample of 1,273 registered voters successful Pennsylvania  interviewed betwixt October 22-28, 2024. The sample was weighted according to gender, age, race, acquisition and geographic region, based connected U.S. Census information and elector files, arsenic good arsenic to past vote. The separator of correction for registered voters is ±3.6 points.

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