CNN data guru details 'signs' pointing to Trump victory: If he wins it 'will have been obvious'

CNN elder information newsman Harry Enten collapsed down nan signs pointing to a imaginable triumph for erstwhile President Trump adjacent week.

Enten mentioned that nan fraction of group satisfied pinch nan country’s existent direction, President Biden’s existent support numbers, and strong elector registration numbers among Republicans successful plaything states are each things that awesome Trump’s re-election adjacent week. 

"If Republicans triumph travel adjacent week – Donald Trump wins travel adjacent week, nan signs each on will person been obvious," Enten told CNN anchor John Berman connected Wednesday morning.

CNN DATA GURU SAYS HARRIS STRUGGLING WITH ‘UNDERPERFORMANCE’ FROM YOUNG VOTERS AMID TAYLOR SWIFT ENDORSEMENT

On Tuesday, CNN elder information newsman Harry Enten discussed 3 "signs" pointing to a Trump triumph adjacent month. (Screenshot/CNN)

Enten began by talking astir really Vice President Kamala Harris’ chances of winning are little arsenic she’s nan incumbent astatine a clip erstwhile only 28 percent of Americans deliberation nan state is on nan correct track.

He said that successful nan modern governmental era – since 1980 – nan mean complaint of Americans who judge nan state is connected nan correct way erstwhile nan incumbent loses is 25 percent. The mean complaint erstwhile nan incumbent wins is 42 percent. 

Mentioning nan 28 percent number, he said, "It doesn‘t look thing – thing – for illustration this 42%... So, nan bottommost statement is, very fewer Americans deliberation nan state is connected nan correct way astatine this peculiar point. It tracks overmuch much pinch erstwhile nan incumbent statement loses than erstwhile it wins."

Enten past collapsed down nan 2nd motion - that historically, a statement whose president has a debased nett support standing is not succeeded by a campaigner of that aforesaid party. 

"So, I went backmost and I looked. Okay, was this successor of nan aforesaid statement erstwhile nan president’s nett support standing was antagonistic astatine this point, which Joe Biden‘s astir decidedly is? He‘s 15 points underwater."

Enten pointed to really George W. Bush, who had a antagonistic nett support standing successful 2008, was succeeded by Democratic President Barack Obama. The aforesaid framing fresh nan extremity of erstwhile President Lyndon B. Johnson’s term, which was followed by Republican Richard Nixon's term. The aforesaid was nan lawsuit astatine nan extremity of Harry Truman’s presidency successful 1952.

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Former US President Donald Trump during a run arena successful Greensboro, North Carolina, US, connected Tuesday, Oct. 22, 2024. Photographer: Cornell Watson/Bloomberg via Getty Images (Cornell Watson)

"Harry S. Truman – his support standing was successful nan 20s, if not nan precocious teens. Did a Democrat win Harry S. Truman successful ’52? My representation – no," he said, adding that Republican Dwight Eisenhower succeeded Truman.

He summed up nan 2nd motion pointing to Trump's victory, stating, "So nan bottommost statement is for Kamala Harris to win, she’d person to break history, beryllium a Democrat to win Joe Biden erstwhile Biden’s support standing is measurement underwater astatine this point."

Enten’s 3rd motion was nan truth that Republican elector registration has been gaining connected Democratic elector registration successful plaything states. "So Republicans are putting much Republicans successful nan electorate, nan Democratic number versus nan Republican number has shrunk," nan newsman declared.

He past concluded pinch a summary of nan full group of findings, stating, "We would look astatine nan correct guidance being very low, Joe Biden’s support standing being very debased and Republicans really registering numbers. You can’t opportunity you weren’t warned."

Enten’s appraisal comes a time aft he warned that polls could beryllium underestimating Harris’ performance. He based on Tuesday that polls up of nan 2022 midterm elections underestimated Democratic Party support by astir 4 points, and said that could beryllium happening to Harris’ numbers currently, which show she’s fundamentally tied pinch Trump.

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