CNN data guru marvels at Trump flipping independent vote in key swing states: ‘Very good sign' for GOP nominee

CNN elder information newsman Harry Enten marveled complete erstwhile President Trump’s existent mini lead pinch independent voters successful important plaything states, suggesting it’s grounds that Trump has bully momentum that could triumph him nan predetermination successful November.

Enten collapsed down nan independent elector polling during "CNN News Central" connected Wednesday, showing web anchor John Berman that Trump has been capable to summation a mini lead complete Vice President Kamala Harris among nan demographic successful cardinal plaything states. Considering nan Democratic Party won those voters by +5 successful 2020, Enten noted it displayed important momentum for Trump.

"That‘s nan type of activity Donald Trump loves to spot and it’s a type of activity that I deliberation gives Democrats immoderate agita," Enten stated.

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CNN elder information newsman Harry Enten precocious explained erstwhile President Trump's gains among independent voters.  (Screenshot/CNN)

The information newsman began by noting really Trump has been chipping distant astatine nan Democratic Party’s lead pinch independents since Nov. 2020. As his aggregate numbers showed, Biden’s +11 points astatine nan clip he won successful 2020 had been halved by September 2024, pinch Harris only having +5 among independents nationally. One period later, Harris’ lead was halved again to only +2.

"You look now though, look astatine this – she‘s only up by 2 points among a cardinal artifact halfway of nan electorate, down 9 points wherever we‘re from wherever Biden was astatine nan extremity of nan 2020 campaign," he said.

He past looked astatine independent voters successful key plaything states Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, among which Trump has a +1 complete Harris – flipped from erstwhile Biden won those voters by +5 successful 2020.

"Look astatine wherever we are today," Enten announced. "This is nan type of activity Donald Trump likes to spot successful nan halfway of nan electorate ­– up by a point."

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Enten recovered Trump's gains among independent voters successful cardinal plaything states singular and a bully motion for his campaign. (Kevin Dietsch/Getty Images)

Enten noted that nan title among this demographic is still a toss-up arsenic Trump’s lead is wrong nan correction margin, but clarified that nan "trends" are nan absorbing point.

"Now, of course, that‘s good wrong immoderate separator of error, right? But again, it‘s nan movement. It‘s nan trends, Mr. Berman, that we‘re looking at."

Enten past went connected to explicate really important nan independent ballot is for candidates looking to triumph nan White House. "Usually nan measurement independents go, truthful goes nan nation," nan newsman said arsenic he flipped to a floor plan showing really galore statesmanlike elections were won erstwhile that campaigner won nan independent ballot since 1952. 

Out of 18 elections since then, nan campaigner who had won independent voters won nan predetermination 15 times. In only 3 elections since 1952, did nan campaigner who mislaid nan independent ballot triumph nan statesmanlike race. 

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"So it is imaginable to suffer independents and triumph nan election, but nan bottommost statement is, that‘s only happened 3 times. It was Nixon successful ‘68. It was Ford and ‘76 and it was Kerry successful 2004," he said, adding, "Normally erstwhile you triumph independents, John, it‘s a very bully motion for your chances to triumph nan election."