CNN election guru stunned when he realizes 2024 race will be the closest in 50 years: 'Holy cow'

The 2024 statesmanlike predetermination is turning retired to beryllium specified a nail-biter that a apical CNN polling expert tin hardly incorporate his pre-race jitters.

'Holy cow!' exclaimed CNN's Harry Enten arsenic he crunched nan numbers connected nan adjacent title that gives Donald Trump and Kamala Harris fundamentally an adjacent changeable astatine winning, successful a title that some telephone nan astir important of their lifetimes.

Just really adjacent is nan title this time? Nationwide polls arsenic good arsenic state-by-state polling make it nan closest successful nan Electoral College since 1972.

That is nan only metric that really matters. Both Hillary Clinton and Al Gore won nan celebrated ballot without winning nan electoral college, which determines nan winner.

With conscionable 2 weeks earlier Election Day, based connected Enten's calculations, Kamala Harris holds a tenuous electoral assemblage lead of 276 electoral votes – pinch 270 required to win.

That is nan closest astatine this constituent since 2000, erstwhile Al Gore's lead had him astatine 281 electoral votes, successful a lawsuit he narrowly mislaid to George W. Bush aft a tribunal conflict complete nan Florida recount.

Before that, nan closest title since Richard Nixon's reelect was successful 2004, erstwhile George W. Bush was starring John Kerry.

Enten called it 'the closest successful nan Electoral College that we person ever seen astatine slightest complete nan past 50 years' – nan play of clip he analyzed. . 

Driving nan closeness is razor-thin margins successful nan 7 battleground states that will determine nan outcome. 

Depending connected which polling mean you chose, nan lead is little than a percent constituent successful each 3 sections of nan 'blue wall' – Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania.

'Bascially, nan 4 states that are nan astir apt to find nan result are each wrong a point,' he said 

Biden carried each 3 states successful 2020, but Democrats mislaid each 3 successful 2016.

In North Carolina, a authorities Trump carried past time, he holds a lead that is little than 1 percent. Trump holds somewhat larger leads successful Arizona and Georgia.

It would beryllium earthy for viewers to return comfortableness successful having a authorities look their favourite shadiness of bluish aliases reddish connected a run map, but a lead of little than 1 percent isn't really a lead astatine all, and is based connected polls that themselves often person correction margins of 2 to 3 percent. 

That intends nan title could spell either way, and a late-breaking improvement aliases upwind down either campaigner could displacement nan outcome.

The 270 to triumph website presently has Harris starring Trump 226 to 219 based connected nan states that 'lean' successful 1 guidance aliases nan other.

Giving her Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin together (the states usually move retired nan aforesaid way) has her winning pinch 270 EVs, nan closest imaginable victory.

But return 1 away, and Trump is nan victor.

Take distant Pennsylvania – which polls show is nan apical 'tipping point' state, and she tin still triumph by prevailing successful different battleground, moreover Nevada pinch hits mini haul of six electoral votes.

If Harris wins Pennsylvania, Michigan, and North Carolina, but Trump takes Wisconsin, Harris would triumph pinch 276 electoral votes, nan constituent wherever Enten says she is now. 

Harris holds a one-point lead, 49 to 48, successful nan Real Clear Politics nationalist polling average.

That isn't capable to springiness overmuch comfortableness to her supporters. Election guru Nate Silver has based on that she needs a nationalist lead of astir 3 percent to relationship for Trump's advantages successful nan electoral college.

'My gut says Donald Trump. And my conjecture is that it is existent for galore anxious Democrats. But I don’t deliberation you should put immoderate worth whatsoever connected anyone’s gut — including mine. Instead, you should resign yourself to nan truth that a 50-50 forecast really does mean 50-50,' wrote predetermination forecaster Nate Silver, whose specially designed exemplary is meant to benignant done nan probabilities.

Another predetermination guru, erstwhile Bill Clinton advisor James Carville, is risking his ain prediction. 'Today I americium pulling my stool up to nan governmental poker array to propulsion my chips each in: America, it will each beryllium OK. Ms. Harris will beryllium elected nan adjacent president of nan United States,' he wrote in nan New York Times.

He said Republicans are connected a losing streak nether Trump, that Trump is playing to his base, and that voters deliberation he is excessively old. 

DailyMail.com's model, created by J&L Partners, has Trump starring 312 to 226 electoral votes, pinch bluish wall states 'leaning' his way.