DOMINIC LAWSON: Don't be fooled by Putin's posturing with Xi and Modi. Russia is facing a financial meltdown and has too few troops to fight his catastrophic war

A smile, of sorts, could beryllium discerned connected nan peculiarly taut features of Vladimir Putin arsenic he welcomed President Xi Jinping of China and Prime Minister Narendra Modi of India to a convention successful nan Russian metropolis of Kazan past week.

This was nan alleged Brics acme and, arsenic nan Russian leader presently holds nan rotating presidency, it was ever going to beryllium held there.

Yet nan thought being put astir that this was a triumph for nan slayer successful nan Kremlin is belied by what really happened successful Kazan. Putin's position sewage nary statements of support from nan leaders of nan world's 2 astir populous nations.

In particular, nan revelation that Russia had sewage North Korea to proviso 1,500 troops for its warfare successful Ukraine went down badly.

Xi Jinping declared location should beryllium 'no description of nan battlefields, nary escalation of hostilities', while Modi warned that nan gathering should not beryllium seen arsenic a agreed beforehand against nan West: 'We support diplomacy, not war.'

The warfare connected Ukraine is said to beryllium going good for Putin correct now – astatine slightest successful position of attritional gains of territory. But nan Russians person had nary breakthroughs.

And arsenic our wise erstwhile Ambassador to Moscow, Sir Roderic Lyne, put it to me: 'Over nan past 2 months, nan Russians person taken astir 300 quadrate miles – balanced to little than one-fifth of Essex – astatine a costs of an estimated 60,000 casualties, dormant and injured, truthful astir 200 per quadrate mile successful a state of complete 230,000 quadrate miles. No wonderment they request nan North Koreans.'

In different words, Putin simply can't find capable Russians to proceed to conflict his catastrophically stupid (and criminal) warfare against a group he claims to beryllium 'brothers'.

A further objection of that predicament is nan Kremlin's decision, implemented this month, to springiness not conscionable prisoners, but each those facing trial, state successful return for going to nan front.

As 1 Russian lawyer describes it: 'Police tin now drawback a man complete nan corpse of personification he has conscionable killed. They tighten nan handcuffs and past nan slayer says, 'Oh wait, I want to spell connected a typical subject operation' – and they adjacent nan criminal case.'

This will lead to a further illness of nan Russian criminal justness strategy — and it's worthy recalling that it was to woody pinch a akin disintegration nether Boris Yeltsin that Putin had (successfully) staked his estimation erstwhile he took agency successful 1999. Now, moreover nan charismatic figures show that organised crime has soared, and shooting connected nan streets has erstwhile again go almost commonplace successful Moscow.

But nan main logic for Putin's fame had been based connected his stabilisation of nan economy. Admittedly, this was astir to do pinch nan coincidental summation successful world lipid prices soon aft he succeeded Yeltsin: arsenic hydrocarbons are overwhelmingly nan largest root of Russian revenues, it is that which keeps nan public's pensions paid.

Yet since Putin launched his full-scale penetration of Ukraine, its income from this important assets has halved. The West's sanctions whitethorn person proved porous, but China and India person been ruthless successful value negotiations complete nan lipid they bargain from Russia – and Beijing has shown nary interest, contempt Putin's pleas, successful a Sino-Russian state pipeline woody to switch nan 1 which has now been closed betwixt Moscow and Western Europe.

Meanwhile, Putin has turned nan home system into thing resembling nan 'structural militarisation' which, successful nan end, led nan Soviet Union into penury and partition.

The strength of nan thrust towards weapons accumulation has starved different sectors of finance – and, indeed, employees. This affects nan commodity of astir interest to each Russian: food.

As a briefing insubstantial by Global Intelligence Services points out: 'Between January and July this year, nan output of tractors and seeders fell by much than 22 per cent. In mid-August, suppliers of cardinal nutrient items informed retailers of pending value hikes of up to 40 per cent.'

Officially, nan wide ostentation complaint is fixed arsenic astir 9 per cent. But tin that beryllium believed? An parameter of nan existent business was nan announcement past Friday by nan Russian Central Bank that it was raising its basal liking complaint by 2 points to a staggering 21 per cent.

This is simply a hammer rustle to nan country's lodging market, particularly as, successful July, nan authorities abandoned its home-owner subsidy strategy which had held owe rates astatine 8 per cent.

But it is acold from conscionable nan spot marketplace which is now to beryllium banjaxed by ultra-high liking rates – themselves successful portion a consequence of Russia's inability to get connected nan world markets (the Chinese won't moreover lend to them successful renminbi, Beijing's charismatic currency).

Last week, Sergei Chemezov, nan CEO of Russia's largest authorities business holding company, Rostec, declared of nan latest hike successful liking rates: 'If we proceed to activity for illustration this, past astir of our enterprises will spell bankrupt.'

Of nan emergence to complete 20 per cent successful borrowing costs, Chemezov observed: 'There is nary 20 per cent profitability anywhere. Maybe successful nan narcotics trade, but moreover nan waste of weapons does not bring specified a profit.'

As it happens, Russia's once-thriving arms export waste and acquisition has besides capsized, for nan elemental logic that it now needs each of them, and more, for its ain use.

As nan Swedish economist Anders Aslund noted: 'Much to its shame, nan Kremlin has been forced to import artillery shells from its moreover much backward neighbour, North Korea.'

Does this each mean that moreover nan stoical Russian group will statesman to move against Putin? The penalties for doing truthful are truthful brutal, that mightiness look unlikely. But if nan continuing disintegration of nan country's infrastructure leads to wide nonaccomplishment of home heating successful winter, that could beryllium a trigger.

Last winter, location was nationalist discontent erstwhile almost 600 'major incidents' affected captious infrastructure, pinch 3 cardinal Russians losing their heating.

Given that nan Kremlin had claimed that Europeans would dice of hypothermia without Russian gas, this led residents to ask: 'Why is it not Europe, but us, who are freezing to death?'

Obviously, Putin has been concentrating connected destroying Ukraine's power networks: but if his ain group are past suffering from soaring costs, nutrient shortages and moreover blackouts, they will hardly deem that a consolation.

In this context, it is perverse of immoderate Western politicians to reason that nan sanctions run against Moscow, and their subject assistance to Ukraine, has been a failure. And it is moreover much perverse to autumn for nan idea, propagated by nan Kremlin, that location is an inevitable tide towards Russian 'victory' (whatever that means).

Look again astatine those pictures of Putin pinch nan leaders of India and China astatine that acme successful Kazan.

Is that really a genuine grin connected nan Russian President's face? Or is it a grimace masquerading arsenic a grin?