Donald Trump's betting odds take a dive just four days ahead of the presidential election

Donald Trump has deed a hiccup successful nan betting markets pursuing a surge of wagers connected Kamala Harris.

The erstwhile president had been soaring connected a number of wager platforms but money moved to Harris complete nan past respective days.

With 4 days until nan election the salient betting website Kalshi had Trump's chances of winning astatine 53 percent compared to 47 percent for Harris.

On Tuesday, nan erstwhile president had been astatine 64 percent and Harris 36 percent connected nan site.

Meanwhile, connected Polymarket, Trump’s likelihood of winning fell from 67 percent connected October 30 to 59 percent connected Friday afternoon.

The governmental prediction tract Predictit had Trump pinch a lead of conscionable 2 points connected Friday.

On October 29 his lead had been 14 points connected nan site.

Over nan aforesaid period  - October 29 to November 1 - Trump's chances connected some bookmakers Bet365 and Paddy Power dropped from 66.7 percent to 63.6 percent.

Kalshi still had Trump pinch a amended chance of winning 5 of nan 7 cardinal battleground states - Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, North Carolina and Pennsylvania.

But it gives Harris a amended chance successful Michigan and Wisconsin.

Pennsylvania is very adjacent pinch Trump connected 52 percent and Harris 48 percent arsenic of Friday lunchtime.

The Real Clear Politics mean of betting markets still had Trump starring Harris by 60.6 percent to 38.1 percent.

However, earlier this week, nan Republican campaigner had been astatine 63.9 percent.

Polls person nan predetermination connected a knife-edge, and fundamentally tied, but for weeks nan betting markets person consistently fixed Trump a clear advantage.

It was unclear what precipitated nan displacement successful nan betting markets successful caller days.

On October 27 a comedian astatine Trump's Madison Square Garden rally successful New York made a disparaging joke astir Puerto Rico, which led to a wide backlash.

Kalshi, which is America's first ineligible online predetermination prediction wagering platform, has already taken $92 cardinal successful bets connected nan 2024 race.

This week, Tarek Mansour, its CEO, said bettors are a much meticulous denotation of nan consequence than nan polls because they person 'skin successful nan game.'

He told DailyMail.com: 'We should decidedly spot nan [wagering] markets.

'Prediction markets are places wherever group person money connected nan line. People don't dishonesty pinch their money.'

In 2016 nan polls indicated Hillary Clinton would easy conclusion Trump, but were wrong. 

In nan past betting markets person proved successful successful predicting nan result of elections.

However, for illustration nan polls, they were not a bully parameter successful 2016.

As agelong agone arsenic 1924 nan Wall Street Journal wrote: 'Betting likelihood are mostly taken arsenic nan champion parameter of probable results successful statesmanlike campaigns.'

At nan time, bookmakers would nonstop group to candidates' speeches and guidelines likelihood connected really nan assemblage responded to them, according to nan newspaper.

In 15 statesmanlike elections from 1884 to 1940 location was only 1 upset erstwhile nan bookmakers were wrong, according to a study by economists Paul Rhode and Koleman Strumpf.

However, successful 1948 nan betting markets, for illustration nan polls, sewage it spectacularly incorrect erstwhile they only gave President Harry Truman a astir 1 successful 10 chance of winning.