Election 2024 poll tracker: Interactive models predict results of key battleground states for Donald Trump and Kamala Harris

Ahead of nan 2024  Presidential election, spot really Kamala Harris and Donald Trump are really faring among voters pinch DailyMail.com's superb canvass tracker.

Readers tin position who is winning nan head-to-head title arsenic good arsenic nan business successful nan battleground states that will yet determine who gets into nan White House.

All of nan information utilized successful our study comes from Harris versus Trump polls collated by DailyMail.com's pollsters J.L. Partners and FiveThirtyEight.

NATIONAL VOTING INTENTION

DailyMail.com collates nationalist polling information from FiveThirtyEight, which collates dozens of voting surveys carried retired each week crossed nan US. We only see head-to-head polls betwixt Donald Trump and Kamala Harris, meaning different candidates specified arsenic Cornel West and Jill Stein are excluded. This provides a clear snapshot of nan nationalist voting intention, aliases nan celebrated vote. Because of nan measurement US elections work, nan leader of this metric won’t needfully go President.

Individual surveys are represented by dots connected nan chart. Rolling play averages – covering Monday to Sunday – are represented by lines. For nan purposes of our graph, Kamala Harris replaced Joe Biden for nan week opening July 22.

NATIONAL PROBABILITY OF WINNING

Our probability chart differs to nan voting volition because it takes into relationship galore factors that could skew nan results connected nan night.

JL Partners, a reputable pollster whose founders were progressive successful moving investigation for nan UK Conservative Government, carries retired modelling to measure who is apt to triumph nan title successful each authorities based connected existent polling. This, arsenic good arsenic humanities voting data, economical indicators and support ratings, is mixed by information scientists who past simulate nan people of nan predetermination thousands of times to cipher nan probability of either Trump aliases Harris becoming President connected November 5.

STATE-BY-STATE PREDICTED WINNERS

Using nan aforesaid methodology arsenic pinch nan nationalist probability, DailyMail.com visualises JL Partners’ predicted results connected a state-by-state basis. This shows nan areas that are considered Republican aliases Democrat strongholds, arsenic good arsenic nan states that could plaything either measurement connected nan night.

BATTLEGROUND STATES PROBABILITY OF WINNING

This chart shows nan probability exemplary but for 7 battleground states that will determine this year’s result. Between Arizona (11), Georgia (16), Michigan (15), Nevada (6), North Carolina (16), Pennsylvania (19) and Wisconsin (10), they person 93 Electoral College votes.