Fox News Poll: Harris erases Trump’s lead on the economy in Michigan

With little than a week until Election Day, nan last Fox News Poll of Michigan apt voters finds Vice President Kamala Harris up 2 points complete erstwhile President Donald Trump connected nan expanded ballot. That’s successful portion owed to Michigan voters being divided complete who would amended grip nan economy.

The caller study shows Harris pinch 48% support among apt voters, Trump pinch 46%, and third-party candidates astatine 5%.  When it’s conscionable nan 2 awesome candidates, nan title is dormant even: 49% each. 

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. dropped retired of nan title and endorsed Trump complete nan summer, but he remains connected nan ballot successful Michigan. He garners 3% support, including 4% of two-way Trump supporters and 1% of Harris supporters defect to him.

Among registered voters, Harris is up by 4 points successful nan expanded ballot, a 6-point displacement since July erstwhile Trump was up by 2 points. The July results were conducted soon aft President Joe Biden dropped out and endorsed Harris, but earlier she was conclusively nan nominee and Kennedy dropped out.

All nan Harris-Trump ballot prime results among registered and apt voters are wrong nan separator of error.

FOX NEWS POLL: MORE HARRIS THAN TRUMP SUPPORTERS THINK VOTERS WILL BE COUNTED ACCURATELY & WILL ACCEPT OUTCOME

Given nan beingness of respective different candidates, it makes consciousness that neither campaigner is matching their party’s 2020 ballot stock – 50.6% Biden, 47.8% Trump. The accepted contented is that support for third-party candidates fades successful nan past 2 weeks earlier nan election, which could further tighten nan race.

The remainder of nan study focuses connected apt voters and nan expanded ballot (unless different noted).

Some of Harris’ advantage comes from nan mini subgroup of independents backing her complete Trump (44-35%) and immoderate non-MAGA Republicans defecting to her (21% Harris, 67% Trump). Nearly 1 successful 10 of each of these groups backmost Kennedy.

Overall, much Democrats backmost Harris (95%) than Republicans do Trump (90%).

There are gender and acquisition gaps arsenic well. Women backmost Harris by 17 points while men spell for Trump by 16. White voters pinch a assemblage grade backmost Harris by 5 points while Whites without a grade spell for Trump by 13.

One tricky spot for Harris is among Black voters. While an overwhelming mostly backs her (81%), this falls 12 points short of nan 93% that voted for Biden successful 2020, according to nan Michigan Fox News Voter Analysis (FNVA).

Overall, Harris’ champion groups are suburban women, municipality voters, and voters nether property 35.

Some of Trump’s champion groups are men, agrarian voters, and Whites without a assemblage degree.

The system has been nan apical rumor this rhythm and Trump has mostly dominated connected this front, nationally arsenic good arsenic successful nan battlegrounds. But now Harris is astir moreover pinch Trump connected nan system successful Michigan. By conscionable 2 points, voters position Trump arsenic amended astatine handling nan economy.  Earlier this year, Trump was up 11 points (among registered voters) complete Biden connected this issue.

Trump besides does amended connected nan Middle East conflict (+6 points amended handle) and does champion connected migration (+16).

Harris is viewed arsenic amended astatine handling abortion (+18 points) and predetermination integrity (+10).

Among those saying Trump tin amended grip immigration, 12% support Harris connected nan ballot, while 14% of those who opportunity Harris tin amended grip abortion backmost Trump.

Voters springiness Harris nan advantage of having nan correct temperament (+10), helping nan mediate people (+10), protecting American populist (+6), and fighting for group for illustration you (+6).

The candidates are viewed astir evenly connected bringing needed alteration (Harris +2), saying what they judge (Harris +1), and being a beardown leader (Trump +3).

"Harris has erased Trump’s lead connected nan economy, which undercuts 1 of nan superior arguments for his candidacy," says Democratic pollster Chris Anderson, who conducts nan Fox News Poll pinch Republican Daron Shaw.  "At nan aforesaid time, Harris has built advantages connected temperament and predetermination integrity and, perhaps, positioned herself arsenic nan little risky prime for immoderate voters."

FOX NEWS POLL: TWO-THIRDS FAVOR DEPORTING IMMIGRANTS WHO LIVE IN U.S. ILLEGALLY

Since February, much than 4 successful 10 Michigan registered voters consciousness they are falling down financially, including 45% today.  Another 42% opportunity they are holding dependable while 14% opportunity they are getting ahead.

Republicans, Independents, and agrarian voters are those astir apt to consciousness they are falling behind.

"While nan title is close, Michigan has ever seemed nan toughest of nan Blue Wall states for Trump," says Shaw. "The cardinal improvement present is that Harris has won complete women connected nan economy. We’ll spot if Trump’s closing transportation blasting her plans to favour electrical vehicles and modulate nan car manufacture is beardown capable to return backmost nan issue."

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A fewer much things…

-- Since July, Harris’ favorable standing among registered voters is up 2 points while Trump’s is down by 3.

-- Over 1 3rd of Michigan apt voters (36%) opportunity they person voted and spell for Harris by 39 points. Among those yet to ballot and are definite they will (54%), Trump leads by 18 points.

-- In nan title for U.S. Senate successful Michigan, Democrat Elissa Slotkin has a 4-point advantage complete Republican Mike Rogers among apt voters (51-47%). Among registered voters, it’s 51-46% Slotkin – precisely wherever it was successful July.

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Conducted October 24-28, 2024, nether nan associated guidance of Beacon Research (D) and Shaw & Company Research (R), this Fox News Poll includes interviews pinch a sample of 1,275 Michigan registered voters randomly selected from a statewide elector file. Respondents said pinch unrecorded interviewers connected landlines (157) and cellphones (770) aliases completed nan study online aft receiving a matter (348). Results based connected nan registered elector sample person a separator of sampling correction of ± 2.5 percent points and for nan subsample of 988 apt voters it is ±3 percent points. Weights are mostly applied to age, race, education, and area variables to guarantee nan demographics of respondents are typical of nan registered elector population. Likely voters are based connected a probabilistic statistical exemplary that relies connected past ballot history, liking successful nan existent election, age, education, race, ethnicity, religion attendance, and marital status.