Fox News Poll: It’s neck-and-neck in Pennsylvania presidential race

Presidential candidates Kamala Harris and Donald Trump person been campaigning heavy successful Pennsylvania and nan latest Fox News Poll shows nan title is arsenic adjacent arsenic it gets.

The survey, released Wednesday, finds Harris and Trump tied among apt voters successful nan expanded ballot pinch 48% each, while conscionable 3% opportunity they are supporting a 3rd party. In September, Trump had a 1-point separator complete Harris and 4% favored personification else.

In nan two-way matchup among apt voters, Trump is up by 1 constituent (50% to 49% Harris).

Among registered voters, however, Harris is up 2 points successful some nan expanded ballot and two-way head-to-head.  All nan results among registered and apt voters are wrong nan separator of error.

Trump hit Hillary Clinton by little than a constituent successful 2016, while President Joe Biden won Pennsylvania successful 2020 by conscionable complete 1 point.

The remainder of nan study focuses connected apt voters and nan expanded ballot (unless different noted).

One of nan reasons nan title is truthful tight is location is simply a smaller (and much balanced) gender spread present than nationally aliases successful different states -- Harris is up 4 points among women while Trump is up 4 points among men.

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Unlike successful immoderate different states, Harris does good among voters nether property 35. Among young voters, she’s up 18 points complete Trump, an betterment connected her 14-point lead past month. She besides has a 5-point advantage among voters ages 65 and complete (it was tied successful September).

There are ample acquisition and organization gaps. White voters pinch a grade backmost Harris by 13 points while Whites without a grade spell for Trump by 15 points. In municipality areas, Harris leads by 30 points, whereas agrarian voters person Trump up by 18 points.

Another affirmative for Trump comes from being favored by 5 points among nan mini subgroup of independents (within nan separator of error).  

Still, much Democrats backmost Harris (93%) than Republicans do Trump (89%) and among nan mini subgroup of non-MAGA Republicans, complete a 3rd (35%) backmost Harris (Trump still gets a mostly 59% support).

As has been nan lawsuit for nan full predetermination cycle, voters spot Trump arsenic amended astatine handling nan economy, though by a smaller 4-point separator than he has nationally (+7). That’s besides down from an 8-point lead past month.

Additionally, 44% consciousness they are falling down financially, astir wherever it’s been since February, but acold much than nan 26% who felt that measurement successful September 2020.

"The reality is nan title successful Pennsylvania hasn’t moved overmuch complete nan entirety of this campaign," says Republican pollster Daron Shaw, who conducts nan Fox News Poll pinch Democrat Chris Anderson. "Given nan antagonistic perceptions of nan economy and her position arsenic vice president, it is somewhat astonishing Harris has been capable to triumph galore Pennsylvania voters complete connected improving nan financial business of nan mediate class. But if Trump tin trim defection rates among non-MAGA Republicans, there’s a bully chance he’ll squeak by."

Trump is seen arsenic amended astatine handling migration by 16 points and nan Middle East conflict by 7 points.

Harris is viewed arsenic amended astatine handling predetermination integrity (+7) and abortion (+20).

Among those trusting Trump connected immigration, 13% support Harris successful nan ballot test, while 15% of those who spot Harris connected abortion backmost Trump.

On characteristics, voters for illustration Harris for having nan correct temperament (+7), helping nan mediate people (+6), protecting American populist (+5), and fighting for group for illustration you (+4).

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Trump has mini advantages successful being a beardown leader (+3) and saying what he believes (+2). Voters are divided connected who would bring needed change.

"Pennsylvania is intelligibly a toss-up going into nan election, but what small activity location is seems to beryllium toward Harris," says Anderson. "I wouldn’t telephone it momentum, but possibly a tilt toward her connected protecting populist and temperament that could beryllium consequential arsenic Trump continues to talk astir nan force wrong and retribution for governmental rivals."

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A fewer much things…

-- Among Pennsylvania apt voters, Harris has a 49% favorable standing and 51% unfavorable for a nett standing of -2. For Trump, it’s -7 (46% favorable, 53% unfavorable). Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz has a nett standing of +1 (47-46%) while Ohio Senator JD Vance is underwater by 4 (45-49%). President Joe Biden fares nan worst, pinch a nett standing of -18 (41-59%).

-- A 4th of Pennsylvania apt voters opportunity they person already voted, and they backed Harris complete Trump by 35 points. Among nan 6 successful 10 who are yet to ballot and are definite they will, Trump leads by 12 points.

-- Republican campaigner Dave McCormick has closed nan spread successful nan Pennsylvania Senate race. Incumbent Democratic Sen. Bob Casey is still up of McCormick but by conscionable 2 points (50% to 48%), down from a 9-point lead successful September (53-44%). This tin beryllium partially attributed to Casey losing crushed pinch women – he’s up by 6 points today, down from a 21-point lead successful September.

Conducted October 24-28, 2024, nether nan associated guidance of Beacon Research (D) and Shaw & Company Research (R), this Fox News Poll includes interviews pinch a sample of 1,310 Pennsylvania registered voters randomly selected from a statewide elector file. Respondents said pinch unrecorded interviewers connected landlines (196) and cellphones (766) aliases completed nan study online aft receiving a matter (348). Results based connected nan registered elector sample person a separator of sampling correction of ± 2.5 percent points and for nan subsample of 1,057 apt voters it is ±3 percent points. Weights are mostly applied to age, race, education, and area variables to guarantee nan demographics of respondents are typical of nan registered elector population. Likely voters are based connected a probabilistic statistical exemplary that relies connected past ballot history, liking successful nan existent election, age, education, race, ethnicity, religion attendance, and marital status.