Fox News Poll: Trump still narrowly ahead of Harris in North Carolina

North Carolina apt voters put erstwhile President Donald Trump up of Kamala Harris successful nan statesmanlike contest, according to a caller Fox News survey. That’s unchanged since September.

Trump is up by 49-47% among apt voters, while third-party candidates person 4%. In nan two-way contest, his separator narrows to 1 constituent -- a useful parameter arsenic pre-election surveys often overstate support for third-party candidates. 

Among nan larger beingness of registered voters, Harris is up by 1 constituent connected some nan expanded ballot (48-47%) and head-to-head (50-49%).

The differences betwixt Harris and Trump connected each ballot tests autumn wrong nan separator of error. 

The erstwhile Fox News study of North Carolina voters, released successful September, besides had Trump favored by conscionable a touch among apt voters and Harris narrowly up among registered voters.

Looking astatine results connected nan afloat ballot among apt voters, Trump is favored among Whites without a assemblage degree, White voters overall, agrarian voters, and voters ages 65 and over. 

Harris is preferred among Black voters, municipality voters, voters pinch a assemblage degree, and those nether property 35. She besides has a mini separator among suburban voters, driven by her wider separator among suburban women than Trump’s lead among suburban men.  

FOX NEWS POLL: MORE HARRIS THAN TRUMP SUPPORTERS THINK VOTERS WILL BE COUNTED ACCURATELY & WILL ACCEPT OUTCOME

Trump is gathering aliases exceeding his 2020 numbers among these groups, while Harris’ support trails what President Joe Biden received among Blacks, young voters, and suburban voters, according to nan North Carolina Fox News Voter Analysis predetermination survey.

There is simply a 20-point gender gap, arsenic men backmost Trump by 13 points and women spell for Harris by 7.

The erstwhile president is helped by North Carolina having much of nan kinds of voters who dress up his base. More place arsenic Republican than Democrat, less person assemblage degrees, and location are acold much agrarian than municipality voters.

Trump has won nan Tar Heel authorities twice, successful 2016 by astir 4 percent points and successful 2020 by conscionable complete 1 point. In nan past 20 years, erstwhile President Barack Obama was nan only Democrat to triumph North Carolina, and that was by little than half a constituent successful 2008.

"Whoever wins North Carolina will apt do 2 things, triumph nan suburbs pinch a stronger closing connection and maximize turnout successful their guidelines areas," says Democratic pollster Chris Anderson, who conducts Fox News surveys pinch Republican Daron Shaw. 

When apt voters are asked who they spot to grip apical issues, they favour Trump connected migration (by 17 points), nan conflict successful nan Middle East (+10), and nan system (+6). Harris is preferred to grip predetermination integrity (+4) and abortion (+12). 

Some 14% of Harris supporters spot Trump connected handling immigration, while 11% of those backing Trump spot Harris connected abortion.  

By a 5-point margin, much voters spot Trump arsenic a beardown leader, while much opportunity Harris has nan correct temperament to beryllium president by 5 points. There are smaller differences connected helping nan mediate people (Harris +3), protecting American populist (Harris +3), fighting for group for illustration you (Harris +1), bringing needed alteration (Trump +2), and saying what they judge alternatively than what will get them elected (Trump +3). 

More Trump backers (75%) than Harris backers (71%) opportunity they are highly willing successful nan election, while complete 9 successful 10 of each candidates’ backers opportunity they are definite of their ballot choice.  

By a 4-point margin, much voters position some Harris and Trump negatively than positively, 48% favorable vs. 52% unfavorable for each. By comparison, President Joe Biden’s individual standing is underwater by 13 points (43-56%).  

Harris is up by 2 points among nan 4 successful 10 who opportunity they person already voted (50-48%). Overall, voters who opportunity they will formed their ballot early favour Trump by 1 point, while he is favored among those readying to ballot connected Election Day by 7 points.

In nan governor’s race, Democrat Josh Stein leads Republican Mark Robinson by 16 points, 57-41%. 

Support for Stein overperforms support for Harris because 14% of those backing him besides favour Trump successful nan statesmanlike race. 

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"Despite carrying a troubled gubernatorial campaigner and having to mobilize voters successful areas devastated by nan hurricane, Trump continues to tally somewhat up by generating enthusiastic support among cardinal Republican constituencies," notes Shaw.

Poll-pourri

Among nan larger sample of registered voters …

-- Harris gets a touch much support among Democrats (95%) than Trump receives from Republicans (93%), arsenic good arsenic narrowly capturing Independents (46% vs. Trump’s 41%, wrong nan separator of error). 

-- While Trump enjoys nan backing of 76% of non-MAGA Republicans, Harris gets 17%, pinch different 5% favoring a third-party campaigner (there are excessively fewer to breakout among nan apt elector subsample). 

-- Trump’s advantage has narrowed to conscionable 3 percent points connected handling nan economy, down from a 7-point lead past period and a 9-point lead successful August.  

-- Equal numbers of voters opportunity they are holding dependable financially arsenic opportunity they are falling down (44% each), while only 1 successful 10 consciousness their family is getting ahead. Those numbers are unchanged since February, contempt awesome flooding and harm from Hurricane Helene successful September.  

Conducted October 24-28, 2024 nether nan associated guidance of Beacon Research (D) and Shaw & Company Research (R), this Fox News Poll includes interviews pinch a sample of 1,113 North Carolina registered voters randomly selected from a statewide elector file. Respondents said pinch unrecorded interviewers connected landlines (164) and cellphones (685) aliases completed nan study online aft receiving a matter (264). Results based connected nan afloat registered elector sample and nan subsample of 872 apt voters person a separator of sampling correction of ±3 percent points. Weights are mostly applied to age, race, education, and area variables to guarantee nan demographics of respondents are typical of nan registered elector population. Likely voters are based connected a probabilistic statistical exemplary that relies connected past ballot history, liking successful nan existent election, age, education, race, ethnicity, religion attendance, and marital status.

Fox News’ Victoria Balara contributed to this report.