Fox News Power Rankings: Arizona is Trump's to lose, but this election is anyone's to win

After an unprecedented 4 years successful politics, voters are evenly divided connected who should adjacent lead nan free world.

Former President Donald Trump is 1 authorities person to a stunning comeback successful this week's Fox News Power Rankings; nan last forecast earlier nan election.

But Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris some person pathways to victory, and among galore scenarios, it is plausible that Democrats triumph by a azygous electoral vote.

A batch has happened but thing has changed

Americans consciousness overwhelmed astatine nan extremity of this statesmanlike cycle. They person grappled pinch rising prices, forbidden immigration, abortion laws, 2 world conflicts and nan abrupt departure of an incumbent from nan statesmanlike race.

Meanwhile, Trump faced indictments complete Jan. 6 and storing classified documents, crushed much than a twelve rivals aft reentering nan statesmanlike race, and survived 2 assassination attempts.

Trump has held dependable successful an unprecedented cycle. (Fox News)

Through it all, nan erstwhile president has kept an unbreakable enslaved pinch his voters. For much than a year, Trump has received support from betwixt 48% to 50% of voters successful nan Fox News Poll, while support for nan Democratic campaigner has been much elastic.

Polls show a tight nationalist race. (Fox News)

Now, arsenic nan last week of nan run begins, this electorate is locked in. Polls show a tight nationalist title and curiously, the battleground states are conscionable arsenic close.

Both candidates remainder their lawsuit connected Trump

This weekend, Harris said astatine a rally pinch Michelle Obama successful Michigan pinch a sharply antagonistic connection astir Trump and women’s health.

The reside stood successful opposition to erstwhile appearances by nan first woman and is simply a motion that nan run feels nan title is close, aliases moreover that they are behind.

Harris campaigns alongside Philadelphia City Council personnel Quetcy Lozada and erstwhile first woman Michelle Obama.  (Andrew Harnik/Getty Images; REUTERS/Rebecca Cook)

On Sunday, nan vice president went to Philadelphia. There are much voters present than immoderate different metropolis successful battleground Pennsylvania and combined, Black and Hispanic group dress up nan mostly of its population.

Those voters stay a weakness of Harris’ new coalition.

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Harris’ sojourn to a Puerto Rican edifice nan aforesaid day, however, proved to beryllium much adjuvant than nan run could person expected.

Later that night, Trump made his closing arguments astatine Madison Square Garden.

The arena was visually powerful. Some Republicans connected nan obstruction astir "MAGA" who saw throngs of supporters successful reddish hats successful Manhattan could person been persuaded that nan activity is much celebrated and inclusive than before.

Republican statesmanlike nominee, erstwhile President Donald Trump waves goodbye aft a run rally astatine Madison Square Garden connected Oct. 27, 2024 successful New York City. (Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images)

But nan programme gave Democrats caller onslaught lines astir Trump and his allies’ acheronian rhetoric, and included jokes from an reproach comedian astir Puerto Rican, Latino, and Jewish people. The Trump run distanced itself from nan remarks Monday, telling Fox News nan joke "does not bespeak nan views of President Trump aliases nan campaign."

These moments are not rather nan strategical mistakes that immoderate observers judge them to be. Trump has a agelong grounds of comments for illustration these, and they thief thrust his supporters to nan polls. But location is simply a ample Puerto Rican organization successful Pennsylvania, wherever nan margins will matter.

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The rally was a front to nan campaign’s full-throated effort to move retired young males, including low-propensity voters. This could beryllium nan bloc that gets Trump complete nan statement connected November 5.

But past week, location were rumblings that this could beryllium a reunion pinch Nikki Haley to play for nan 20% of higher-propensity, non-MAGA Republicans who say they will ballot for Harris successful November. This arena was not that.

Trump still beardown connected 2 apical issues

The erstwhile president remains very well-positioned connected 2 of nan apical 3 issues.

The astir important issues, successful a Fox News Poll from earlier this month. (Fox News)

The system is by acold and consistently nan astir important rumor successful deciding voters’ ballots. Voters opportunity Trump will amended grip nan rumor by 7 points. He is moreover much heavy favored connected migration astatine 15 points. The spot reverses for abortion, wherever voters favour Harris by 13 points.

The canvass showed different cardinal issues successful nan election. (Fox News)

The issues polling looks little lopsided further down nan list, though still pinch a Trump advantage. Harris leads connected wellness care, ambiance alteration and predetermination integrity, while Trump is up connected Israel, crime, and guns.

Voters identified nan rumor motivating them to vote. (Fox News)

Fox’s latest survey besides asked voters which rumor was motivating them to vote. 12% said nan economy, but 11% chose campaigner characteristic and values, and 10% said protecting democracy, rights, and freedoms would get them to nan polls.

In a toss-up title to 270, Arizona becomes Trump’s champion battleground opportunity

The 2024 statesmanlike predetermination is simply a toss-up successful nan Fox News Power Rankings statesmanlike forecast. (Fox News)

The statesmanlike title is simply a toss-up. Neither Harris nor Trump person nan 270 electoral votes required to triumph nan race. They request to triumph nan correct operation of six toss-up states worthy a full 82 electoral votes to bring it home.

Surveys show races wrong nan margin-of-error successful each nan battleground states, but erstwhile looked astatine together, nan polling successful Arizona tells a different story.

Fox News Power Rankings statesmanlike map. (Fox News)

In 8 high-quality polls conducted successful this authorities since August, Trump has been up successful seven. His separator has been betwixt 1-6 points.

Trump has consistently held nan advantage successful battleground authorities Arizona. (Fox News)

That advantage does not beryllium for Harris aliases Trump successful immoderate different battleground state. 

Immigration continues to beryllium a highly important rumor successful Arizona, which shares a separator pinch Mexico. 

Arizona moves to Lean R. (Fox News)

In nan latest Wall Street Journal survey, 25% of voters said migration was nan astir important rumor to their vote, higher than immoderate different battleground. It was a "deal-breaker" rumor for 24% of voters. And Arizona voters preferred Trump connected nan rumor by 10 points.

Trump friends do not look to beryllium a drag. Republican Senate campaigner Kari Lake is less popular pinch voters contempt their shared policies and traits (her Senate title remains Lean D). But nan level of ticket-splitting is precocious and has endured passim nan campaign.

Presidential battlegrounds successful nan Fox News Power Rankings. (Fox News)

This is still a highly competitory race. If Trump loses, it will beryllium because of suburban maturation and non-MAGA Republican voters, who are a beardown faction. There is besides an abortion measurement connected nan ballot.

But nan statewide polling has been directionally accordant and migration reigns supreme. 

Arizona moves from Toss Up to Lean R.

(Fox News Power Rankings are nonpartisan pre-election predictions. Each ranking is informed by data, reporting, and analysis.)

Both candidates person pathways to victory

Battleground states person been won and mislaid together successful caller elections. Trump won nan bulk of them successful 2016; Biden flipped them backmost 4 years later.

There are signs that nan Democratic run is pursuing a path-of-least-resistance wherever they eke retired a triumph pinch half of those states.

Harris-Walz run schedule. (Fox News)

Harris and Walz’s schedules this week attraction connected Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. These states relationship for astir 60% of their time, nan campaign’s astir precious resource. Both nominees are visiting each three.

(In heavy bluish DC, Harris will item Trump’s efforts to overturn nan results of nan past predetermination successful a reside connected nan Ellipsis.)

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Democrats person besides spent astir 60% of their battleground advertizing budgets successful nan aforesaid states; complete $460 million.

This suggests that nan run is targeting wins successful these states and Nebraska’s 2nd district, positive each nan little competitory races Biden won past time.

That would onshore them connected 270 electoral votes, nan minimum number required to win.

This is 1 of galore scenarios. But arsenic nan Harris run struggles to propulsion ahead, it is simply a very plausible one.

Other competitory statesmanlike races. (Fox News)

There are 10 states that will apt stay successful statement hands but stay competitory successful nan last stretch. 

For Republicans, nan first opportunity connected a awesome nighttime would beryllium Virginia, wherever a Washington Post canvass shows Harris up by six points, 49%-43%.

Fox News Power Rankings statesmanlike table. (Fox News)

Four Senate races go much competitive

Republicans are poised to flip nan Senate pinch astatine slightest 51 seats, opening pinch an all-but-certain triumph successful West Virginia, followed by Montana, wherever they person an edge. The adjacent champion opportunity is successful Ohio, which is still a toss-up.

Republicans are forecast to power nan Senate successful Fox News Power Rankings. (Fox News)

Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin each move from Lean D and subordinate nan toss-up class this week.

Fox News Power Rankings Senate map. (Fox News)

Republicans person been chipping distant astatine their opponents’ leads successful these states since nan campaigns heated up, and polling now shows races wrong nan margin-of-error.

Fox News Power Rankings Senate battleground shifts. (Fox News)

All 3 Democratic candidates are still over-performing nan apical of nan summons by a constituent aliases two, and nan campaigns are intelligibly aware: they person each promoted their activity pinch Trump connected bipartisan bills successful caller tv ads.

Fox News Power Rankings Senate map. (Fox News)

The GOP is improbable to prime disconnected each 3 of these seats, but immoderate would beryllium gravy connected apical of a apt mostly flip.

Meanwhile, Republicans person been slow to respond to independent campaigner Dan Osborn’s run successful Nebraska. Incumbent GOP Sen. Deb Fischer has won doubly before, but Osborn, a Navy seasoned and section national leader, is now a superior threat.

A caller canvass from nan New York Times/Siena finds 46% of voters backing Osborn and 48% pinch Fischer; shockingly adjacent for a blimpish state. That is aft GOP groups began telling voters that Osborn is simply a "Bernie Democrat."

This Nebraska Senate title moves from Likely R to Lean R.

Other competitory Senate races. (Fox News)

The Senate could person different surprises successful store, including Florida, wherever incumbent GOP Sen. Rick Scott continues to move money into nan race, and Texas, wherever Republican Sen. Ted Cruz is fighting for different word against Democratic Rep. Colin Allred. Both these races are still Likely R.

Fox News Power Rankings Senate table. (Fox News)

Democrats walk large successful a toss-up House

The House is still a toss-up.

Fox News Power Rankings House forecast. (Fox News)

Beneath nan surface, nan conflict for nan gavel is getting much expensive. House candidates person spent much than $3 cardinal connected their races truthful far, concentrated successful astir 40 battleground districts.

Fox News Power Rankings House battleground shifts. (Fox News)

Democrats person raised and spent astir doubly arsenic overmuch arsenic Republicans, and that is an important facet successful Pennsylvania’s 7th district. 

Biden won this eastbound territory by little than a constituent successful 2020 and it includes Northampton County, which had nan narrowest separator of immoderate successful nan authorities that year.

Incumbent Democratic Rep. Susan Wild is financially dominant, pinch $7.5 cardinal successful run spending this rhythm to GOP rival and authorities Rep. Ryan Mackenzie’s $1.2 million. The territory moves from Toss Up to Lean D.

More Fox News Power Rankings House shifts. (Fox News)

Money is besides a large portion of nan communicative successful Illinois’ 17th district and Indiana’s 1st district. Democratic incumbents successful these races person spent astatine slightest 3 times arsenic overmuch arsenic their Republican opponents. These seats move from Lean D to Likely D.

The rate is flowing successful Arizona’s 2nd district too. Incumbent GOP Rep. Eli Crane faces a situation from Democrat and erstwhile President of nan Navajo Nation Jonathan Nez successful this disproportionately Native American district. 

Nez has dropped $3.7 cardinal connected nan title and is focusing connected his activity pinch Trump connected h2o access. Crane, meanwhile, is highlighting nan border. The 2nd territory moves from Solid R to Likely R.

Fox News Power Rankings bully nights successful nan House for each party. (Fox News)

Virginia’s 7th district is much competitory than ever. Democrats person fielded Eugene Vindman, a Navy veteran, while Republicans are looking for a flip pinch lawyer Derrick Anderson. 

The run has been marked by mini-scandals connected some sides, but Vindman does not person nan beardown centrist marque that retiring Democrat Abigail Spanberger built. This territory moves from Lean D to Toss Up.

Fox News Power Rankings House table. (Fox News)

Keep an oculus connected Indiana’s politician race

So far, location person only been 3 competitory governor’s races connected nan representation and New Hampshire is nan 1 to watch.

Fox News Power Rankings competitory Governor races. (Fox News)

In Indiana, Republican gubernatorial campaigner Sen. Mike Braun should person been capable to cruise to triumph against immoderate Democratic opponent.

Fox News Power Rankings Governor shifts. (Fox News)

But Braun’s hardline position connected abortion has fixed Democrat Jennifer McCormick an opening. The authorities enacted a adjacent full prohibition connected abortion 2 years ago, which McCormick argues is excessively extreme. Braun maintains that Indiana should beryllium a "right-to-life state."

There are besides different partisan dynamics astatine play. The GOP’s campaigner for lieutenant politician could effect support for nan Republican summons among moderates, and location is simply a Libertarian connected nan ballot.

Indiana’s politician title moves from Solid R to Likely R.

Fox News Power Rankings Governor table. (Fox News)

One week until predetermination night

No matter who reaches 270 votes adjacent week, nan victor will beryllium nan American people.

The United States is not nan only democracy, but it is nan astir powerful. Estimates propose that astatine slightest 160 cardinal voters will formed a ballot by Election Day. 

They will person nan singular powerfulness to take nan leader of nan free world and nan guidance of nan country.

Fox News' Democracy '24 typical sum pinch Bret Baier and Martha MacCallum originates adjacent Tuesday astatine 6 p.m. ET from New York City.

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Coverage will see nan latest title calls from nan Fox News Decision Desk and results from nan Fox News Voter Analysis.