Harris-Trump showdown: In nation's biggest battleground, new poll show's 'it's really, really close'

HARRISBURG, PA - As Vice President Kamala Harris returns to Pennsylvania connected Wednesday for her 2nd travel successful 3 days, a caller canvass is nan latest to bespeak an incredibly adjacent title betwixt her and former President Trump successful nan important plaything state.

According to a Monmouth University survey, conscionable nether half of registered voters successful Pennsylvania opportunity they will either decidedly aliases person already voted for nan vice president and Democratic statesmanlike nominee (42%) aliases will astir apt ballot for her (5%).

An identical number will either decidedly aliases person already voted for Trump (42%) aliases will astir apt ballot for nan erstwhile president and Republican statesmanlike nominee (5%), successful a abstracted mobility asked by nan pollster.

The canvass was conducted Oct. 24-28 and released connected Wednesday.

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Democratic statesmanlike nominee Vice President Kamala Harris speaks during a run rally astatine The Alan Horwitz "Sixth Man" Center connected October 27, 2024 successful Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. (Andrew Harnik/Getty Images)

With 19 electoral votes astatine stake, Pennsylvania is nan largest of nan 7 cardinal battleground states whose razor-thin margins decided President Biden's 2020 predetermination triumph complete Trump and which will apt find if Harris aliases Trump wins nan 2024 statesmanlike election.

According to nan survey, erstwhile third-party and independent candidates are factored into nan results, Trump stands astatine 47% among registered voters successful Pennsylvania, pinch Harris astatine 46% and 4% saying they're decidedly aliases astir apt backing different candidate.

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The merchandise from Monmouth University connected their caller canvass emphasized successful nan header that successful Pennsylvania "it's really, really close."

"The bottommost statement is this was an incredibly adjacent title successful September and remains truthful today," Monmouth University Polling Institute head Patrick Murray said, arsenic he compared nan results of his caller study successful nan Keystone State pinch his erstwhile canvass successful Pennsylvania.

Republican statesmanlike nominee, erstwhile President Donald Trump speaks astatine a run rally astatine The PPL Center connected October 29, 2024 successful Allentown, Pennsylvania.  (Photo by Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images) (Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images)

The pollster spotlighted that Trump "continues to person a important advantage among achromatic voters without a assemblage grade – who dress up astir half of Pennsylvania’s elector excavation "– topping Harris 60%-35% among this group.

But nan study indicates that Harris holds a ample 58%-37% lead among achromatic assemblage graduates, and voters who are Black, Hispanic, and of different races (62% to 25%).

With six days to spell until Election Day, nan caller study follows different caller polls that constituent to an incredibly adjacent title successful nan Keystone State. A CBS News canvass conducted Oct. 22-28 pointed to some awesome statement candidates deadlocked astatine 49%.

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Pennsylvania, on pinch Michigan and Wisconsin, are nan 3 Rust Belt states that dress up nan Democrats' alleged "Blue Wall."

Democrats reliably won each 3 states for a quarter-century earlier Trump narrowly captured them successful nan 2016 predetermination complete Democratic Party nominee Hillary Clinton to triumph nan White House.

Four years later, successful 2020, Biden carried each 3 states by razor-thin margins to put them backmost successful nan Democrats' file and conclusion Trump.

Both nan Democratic and Republican statesmanlike nominees, arsenic good arsenic their moving mates, person made repeated stops successful nan 3 states this summertime and autumn.

Harris made aggregate stops Sunday successful Philadelphia, nan state's largest city. And Trump held a run arena Tuesday successful Delaware County, successful suburban Philadelphia, earlier holding a rally successful in Allentown.

"I don't for illustration to speak excessively early, but you person to get retired and ballot because we … we want a big, beautiful number. We're starring successful each azygous plaything state. Because, usually Republicans, they for illustration to ballot astatine nan extremity nary matter what you say, they for illustration to ballot astatine nan end," Trump said from nan Allentown rally. 

Trump's caller transportation for early voting stands successful opposition to his years of blaming nan believe for what he continues to declare - without impervious - that his 2020 predetermination nonaccomplishment was owed to "massive elector fraud."

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Since Haris replaced Biden atop nan Democrats' 2024 summons aft nan president dropped retired of nan title successful July, Fox News recovered nan vice president has visited Pennsylvania astatine slightest 15 times, arsenic of Tuesday. 

Vice President Kamala Harris (right) and Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz squad up for nan first clip connected nan run trail, hours aft nan vice president named Walz arsenic her moving mate connected nan Democrats' ticket, successful Philadelphia, Pennsylvania connected August 6, 2024 (Fox News - Paul Steinhauser)

Philadelphia was wherever Harris first teamed up pinch Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz aft announcing him arsenic her moving mate. And Harris hunkered down successful Pittsburgh - nan state's 2nd largest metropolis - to hole for her first and only statement pinch Trump, which was held successful September successful Philadelphia.

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Trump has besides visited nan authorities astatine slightest 15 times since nan extremity of July, Fox News found. Trump’s history pinch Pennsylvania was underscored by an assassination effort connected his life July 13 successful Butler, erstwhile a man named Mathew Crooks opened occurrence connected Trump and his supporters. Trump was injured connected nan broadside of his caput by nan shooting, and 2 different rallygoers were besides injured. Local man Corey Comperatore died protecting his family during nan violence. 

Republican Sen. JD Vance of Ohio, Trump’s moving mate, has visited nan authorities astatine slightest 13 times since nan commencement of August. Walz has visited Pennsylvania astatine slightest 9 times since August, information compiled by Fox News found. 

Both campaigns person spent much than half a cardinal dollars connected ads unsocial successful Pennsylvania, nan Philadelphia Inquirer reported past week. Democrats spent much than $294.7 cardinal successful Pennsylvania, while Republicans spent $243.6 cardinal successful nan Keystone State. The costs spent acold transcend advertisement buys successful different battleground states, including Michigan, which trails Pennsylvania advertisement expenses by a combined $185 million. 

AdImpact, a starring nationalist ad-tracking firm, reports that nan Trump run has reserved $5.8 cardinal successful advertisement clip to tally spots successful nan last agelong up of Election Day, pinch nan Harris run shelling retired $4.6 million.

When Biden narrowly carried Pennsylvania 4 years ago, Democrats enjoyed a larger separator of registered voters compared to their Republican counterparts, astatine 4.2 cardinal to 3.5 million. The information show that Democrats had a registration advantage complete Republicans by 685,818 voters during nan predetermination that Biden won by 80,555 votes.

Vice President Kamala Harris, right, and erstwhile President Donald Trump during their first and only debate, successful Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, connected Tuesday, Sept. 10, 2024. (Doug Mills/The New York Times/Bloomberg via Getty Images)

The GOP has whittled down that lead this twelvemonth to a separator of 297,824. When comparing registered voters this predetermination twelvemonth to 2020, Democrats look a nett nonaccomplishment of 257,281 voters, while Republicans person a nett summation of 428,537 registered voters. 

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More than double nan number of antecedently registered Democrats changed their statement affiliation this rhythm compared to nan number of registered Republicans who near nan party. Pennsylvania Department of State information shows 54,668 registered Democrats changed their statement affiliation compared to 25,634 Republicans.

Besides being nan biggest of nan statesmanlike battlegrounds, Pennsylvania is besides location to 1 of a fistful of important Senate races that will apt find if nan GOP wins backmost nan chamber's majority.

According to the Monmouth poll, Democratic Sen. Bob Casey Jr.  holds a flimsy separator complete Republican challenger Dave McCormick.

Forty percent of those questioned said they would decidedly ballot for Casey, pinch different 7% saying they would astir apt formed a ballot for nan senator. Thirty-six percent said they would decidedly ballot for McCormick, pinch 8% saying they'd astir apt formed a ballot for nan Republican nominee.

Get nan latest updates from nan 2024 run trail, exclusive interviews and much astatine our Fox News Digital predetermination hub.