Here are the make-or-break factors for bitcoin after a blistering rally so far in 2024

• Bitcoin is up 57% this year, and marketplace players spot further gains ahead.
• Investors are bullish connected nan election, arsenic good arsenic further maturation for bitcoin ETFs.
• They besides admit bearish factors for illustration regulatory uncertainty and a deficiency of a post-election narrative.

It's been a momentous twelvemonth for bitcoin, pinch large value gains to lucifer immoderate of nan astir important developments for nan token successful years.

It started pinch nan Securities and Exchange Commission's groundbreaking approval of spot bitcoin exchange-traded costs successful January.

That made it easier for mean investors to bargain and waste and acquisition nan crypto, and helped mainstream nan token via money offerings from plus guidance titans for illustration BlackRock and Fidelity.

In April, bitcoin underwent its scheduled "halving," reducing nan magnitude of tokens miners are rewarded by half. The event, which happens astir each 4 years, is bullish arsenic it cuts nan proviso of caller tokens to nan market.

The cryptocurrency has surged 57% successful 2024, and is up by complete 90% successful nan past year. Investors and analysts are still bullish, eyeing much gains successful nan twelvemonth to travel moreover arsenic predetermination uncertainty looms.

"I'm really bullish for 2025," Matt Hougan, Chief Investment Officer astatine Bitwise Asset Management, told Business Insider. "There are each these affirmative trends."

Still, different marketplace pros told BI that location are immoderate headwinds building that could origin nan rally to stumble.

Here are nan make-or-break factors to watch.

Central slope policy

Hougan pointed to a wide group of monetary easing cycles from cardinal banks arsenic a cardinal bullish driver for bitcoin.

Central slope easing typically boosts consequence assets for illustration crypto. When liking complaint volatility was precocious complete nan summer, Bitcoin slumped arsenic investors poured into protect areas of nan market.

The Federal Reserve's large complaint trim past period fueled a bitcoin rally, and crypto experts opportunity nan broader cardinal slope easing rhythm that's kicking disconnected astir nan world should reenforce nan gains.

CoinDesk Indices' Andy Baehr says that monetary easing should substance nan cryptocurrency's emergence successful nan months ahead.

"This is thing nan marketplace tin count connected for months aliases quarters. The temper changed correct away," Baehr said, pointing to nan contiguous emergence successful bitcoin's value arsenic good arsenic an summation successful different indicators of spot for illustration rising speech volumes.

Regulatory uncertainty

Less bullish for crypto would beryllium a much muscular regulatory attack to nan market, and uncertainty astir nan oversight authorities is simply a headwind.

"The worst result for crypto is 1 that sustains uncertainty astir nan guidance of crypto authorities and regulation," Hougan said, adding that nan predetermination outcomes could propulsion a wrench into nan equation.

"We person a hunch of what a Harris management aliases a Trump management would do, but we cognize that those promises don't ever travel through, and you tin person harsh results," Hougan said, pointing to erstwhile crypto was excited for Gary Gensler to return complete arsenic SEC chair earlier proving strict connected crypto regulation.

Hougan said, though, that he thinks bitcoin appears to beryllium successful nan clear pinch regulators aft nan SEC approved nan spot ETFs.

The statesmanlike election

The US statesmanlike predetermination besides remains apical of mind for crypto investors.

While some Trump and Harris are seen arsenic pro-crypto, it's been Trump who has embraced nan marketplace publically successful caller months, speaking astatine events and moreover launching his ain NFTs. This has led nan marketplace to judge he'd beryllium nan 1 to genuinely let it to flourish and bitcoin has rallied arsenic Trump's likelihood of winning nan predetermination person risen.

A Trump triumph could sprout bitcoin to $125,000 by nan extremity of nan year, a jump of complete 80% from Friday's prices, according to Standard Charter expert Geoff Kendrick.

But moreover if likelihood displacement successful favour of Vice President Kamala Harris, bitcoin will apt still rally, Hougan said.

He says a Trump triumph would beryllium an accelerant for crypto successful nan fewer months aft nan election, but bitcoin will apt do good successful nan agelong word regardless, arsenic Harris appears to beryllium friendlier to crypto than President Joe Biden.

"Two years ago, crypto was talking astir Sam Bankman Fried and nan biggest financial crime of each time, and crypto was wholly toxic. Today, some statesmanlike campaigns are posturing successful affirmative ways toward nan crypto industry," Hougan said.

After nan election, bitcoin's way looks little clear.

As markets fixate connected nan consequence of nan November contest, there's nary clear catalyst for further gains aft that.

"Sharks request to aquatics to survive. If they extremity they will die," Hougan said, adding, "Bitcoin is benignant of for illustration that. It is, successful nan end, a narrative- and growth-focused entity."

He says, though, that nan communicative could constituent toward greater organization adoption, aliases toward much perchance real-world applications for crypto.

Spot ETFs will summation momentum

Among nan bullish drivers, nan spot ETFs that drove a rally earlier this twelvemonth will apt still person a affirmative impact.

"I deliberation Bitcoin ETF flows will accelerate successful Q4 and past accelerate again successful 2025. And I don't deliberation that's priced into nan marketplace aliases expected," Hougan said.

Baehr said nan rising prominence of bitcoin ETFs and their backing from firms for illustration BlackRock will thief nan crypto push further into nan mainstream.

"I deliberation that nan plus people now is capable to participate successful much superior conversations, and truthful nan value of bitcoin is conscionable going to bask that cosmopolitan description and that web enrichment," Baehr said.