How the Electoral College works - and why 270 votes will decide if Trump or Harris wins the 2024 election

When nan Founding Fathers based on astir really nan newly-formed United States would elite a president, they compromised connected a unsocial strategy that became known arsenic nan Electoral College.

It requires a campaigner to scope 270 retired of 538 full electoral votes. How that mathematics plays retired has changed predetermination by election, campaigner by candidate.

For nan 2024 title polling shows that astir of nan 538 votes are already sewn up by Donald Trump aliases Kamala Harris - but 93 are still up for grabs successful 7 battleground states.

The process down nan Electoral College is outlined successful Article Two of nan U.S. Constitution.

Each authorities gets arsenic galore electors arsenic it has members of Congress - those successful nan House and nan Senate. There are presently 538 electors successful all, including 3 for Washington D.C., which is represented contempt not being a state.

Voters caput to nan polls connected nan Tuesday aft nan first Monday successful November – that is November 5th successful this year's election.

After nan results, nan individuals chosen arsenic electors meet successful nan authorities capitals connected nan first Tuesday aft nan 2nd Wednesday of December (that is December 17th for this year) to formed their votes for President and Vice President. They past taxable their votes to some houses of Congress.

Congress past certifies nan results of nan predetermination during a associated session, typically held connected January 6th – a day that has travel to unrecorded successful infamy aft nan riot astatine nan Capitol erstwhile lawmakers met to certify nan results of nan 2020 contest.

The analyzable quality of nan Electoral College has been arguable since it was established astatine nan Constitutional Convention successful 1787.

Supporters reason that it requires statesmanlike candidates to person wide entreaty crossed nan state to win, while critics declare it is not typical of nan celebrated will of nan nation.

The Electoral College came astir during nan Constitutional Convention aft a agelong statement complete really to elite nan president.

Some Founding Fathers wanted Congress to determine and immoderate wanted it to beryllium a celebrated vote.

At nan clip of nan Convention, nary different state successful nan world straight elected its main executive, truthful nan delegates were successful uncharted waters.

But immoderate delegates worried if Congress made nan determination it would connection excessively galore chances for corruption betwixt nan executive and legislative branches.

However, others worried that 18th Century voters lacked nan resources to beryllium afloat informed astir nan candidates, particularly successful agrarian outposts.

They feared a celebrated ballot could lead to a charismatic megalomaniac winning complete a mob of voters and taking nan White House.

An Electoral College was nan compromise.

The determination besides gave much powerfulness to enslaved states and mini states.

Slave states wanted to summation their voting powerfulness (since they could count slaves arsenic 3/5 of a personification erstwhile allocating electors) and mini states would beryllium guaranteed a minimum of 3 electors per state.

While polls show astir voters don't for illustration nan Electoral College location is nary easy alternative.

'I deliberation 1 of nan challenges is conscionable that it's to scope a statement astir what would beryllium a amended alternative,' Costas Panagopoulos, a professor astatine Northeastern University who is an master connected nan Electoral College, told DailyMail.com.

'Each of those alternatives is going to create biases successful favour aliases against definite types of places,' he noted.

The Electoral College gives value to battleground states that are must-wins for candidates. But switching to a celebrated ballot system, for example, would springiness heavy populated areas – for illustration New York, California and Texas – nan advantage.

Additionally, it's simply difficult to alteration nan Constitution, which is what is required to found a caller predetermination system. A law amendment requires a two-thirds supermajority successful Congress positive ratification by three-fourths of nan states.

The mostly of states person adopted a victor return each attack erstwhile it comes to awarding their electors. Maine and Nebraska are different arsenic they administer their electoral votes by nan victor of each of their legislature districts. 

Both Kamala Harris and Donald Trump's campaigns person devised paths toward victory, a strategy of which states to triumph to springiness them nan basal 270 votes successful nan college.

There are 225 electoral votes considered solidly aliases apt Democratic, meaning they'd spell to Harris while 218 are seen arsenic apt to spell to Trump.

To scope 270, Harris is eyeing nan 3 'blue wall' states - Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania - that flipped to Trump successful 2016 and flipped backmost to Democrats successful 2020.

If Harris wins those 3 states while Trump carries Nevada, Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina, Harris would triumph pinch nan minimum 270 electoral votes to Trump's 268.

As portion of that route Harris would request nan 1 electoral ballot from Nebraska's 2nd Congressional District – and she had moving mate Tim Walz campaigning location this week.

The past clip nan bluish wall did not ballot successful unison was successful 1988, erstwhile Michael Dukakis won Wisconsin while losing Pennsylvania and Michigan.

Overall, nan Harris run is focused connected winning nan battleground states that Biden won successful 2020 — nan 3 bluish wall states, Arizona, Nevada and Georgia — positive North Carolina.

The authorities pinch nan biggest likelihood of tipping nan predetermination is Pennsylvania.

It has 19 electoral votes, much than immoderate different plaything states, and has received nan astir attraction from Harris and Trump.

The Trump run has focused heavy connected nan state, which he won successful nan 2016 title but mislaid successful 2020.

A triumph location positive a fewer much battleground states hands him victory.

For example, if Trump wins Pennsylvania, Georgia and North Carolina that would get him 270 electoral votes.

Another way would beryllium for Trump to triumph Georgia and Arizona (which he mislaid by a fewer 1000 votes successful 2020) and clasp connected to North Carolina. If he did that he would only request 1 of Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania to win.

A campaigner tin triumph without Pennsylvania but would request to return astir of nan different battleground states to dress up for losing those 19 votes.

It is very imaginable to triumph nan celebrated ballot but suffer nan Electoral College vote. This happened successful 2016, 2000, and 3 times successful nan 1800s.

A necktie successful nan Electoral College, while a debased probability, is possibile.

If Trump wins Arizona, Georgia, Nevada and North Carolina, while Harris takes Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin but loses Nebraska's 2nd legislature territory to Trump – nan consequence would beryllium 269-269 tie.

If a necktie occurs, nan predetermination goes to Congress to decide.

After nan 1800 predetermination ended pinch Thomas Jefferson and Aaron Burr successful a tie, nan House needed 36 ballots to yet elite Jefferson nan president.

Subsequently, lawmakers adopted nan 12th Amendment to streamline nan electoral process.

Under it, successful nan arena of a tie, nan House of Representatives picks nan president and nan Senate picks nan vice president. They tin prime candidates from different parties to service together successful nan White House.

Complicating matters, erstwhile an predetermination goes to Congress each authorities successful nan House of Representatives gets 1 vote. And location is nary required process for nan authorities to prime who they ballot for. Each authorities – which has Democratic and Republican lawmakers – would person to determine for itself really it would formed its 1 vote.

They are not bound to take nan campaigner who won their authorities successful nan wide election.

Also, nan territories get nary say.

'Washington D.C. and each nan voters location will person nary representation, nary opportunity successful who gets picked,' Panagopoulos said.

Once a determination connected that is made, each state's delegation successful nan House gets a azygous vote, and nan campaigner who receives a mostly 26 of 50 authorities votes is president. In nan Senate, each legislator gets 1 ballot to prime nan vice president, pinch 51 votes needed to find a winner.

In 1824, Andrew Jackson achieved a plurality of nan ballot but fell short of a majority. But nan second-place finisher successful nan Electoral College and celebrated vote, John Quincy Adams, was capable to summation capable support successful nan House to triumph nan presidency.