If South Korea decides to get involved in Ukraine, it has powerful options

• South Korea is threatening to limb Ukraine successful consequence to North Korea's support for Russia.
• Its weapons stockpiles could make a large quality for Ukraine.
• But South Korea remains wary of getting progressive successful nan Ukraine war.

South Korea threatened to nonstop weapons and resources to Ukraine successful consequence to its longtime foe, North Korea, escalating support for Russia's invasion.

If it goes ahead, it could beryllium a powerful ally.

After an emergency National Security Council meeting this week, apical South Korean officials condemned North Korea for sending troops to Russia.

Their ngo has not been made explicit, but Ukraine has said they are location to subordinate Russia's invasion.

Officials besides briefed news outlets that Seoul could nonstop weapons to Ukraine arsenic portion of a bid of phased countermeasures.

South Korean news agency Yonhap connected Tuesday cited information officials who said Seoul could moreover nonstop subject unit to Ukraine to show North Korea's beingness successful nan conflict.

Russia's overseas ministry threatened South Korea pinch "security consequences" should it get involved, Yonhap reported.

A fearsome arsenal

Analysts opportunity Russia has a bully logic to beryllium concerned.

"South Korean weapons could perchance make a important quality connected some Ukraine's protect capabilities and violative capabilities," Jeremy Chan, a China and northeast Asia expert astatine nan Eurasia Group, told Business Insider.

South Korea, a US ally, has built a formidable arsenal of weapons successful its decadeslong stand-off pinch North Korea.

It includes antiaircraft and anti-missile systems which could thief Ukraine take sides its towns and infrastructure from Russian attacks, Chan said.

There are besides "world-class" K9 Howitzer guns, K2 tanks, and multiple-rocket-launcher systems, Chan said.

Seoul has already aided nan proviso of much-needed 155 mm shells to Ukraine, albeit astatine 1 remove.

South Korea sent ammo to Western friends for illustration nan US and Poland, which freed them up to nonstop their ain to Ukraine.

Ellen Kim, a Korea master pinch nan Center for Strategic and International Studies successful Washington, DC, told BI that South Korean support for Kyiv could see giving intelligence connected North Korean weapons and tactics.

"South Korea could assistance successful a psychological warfare run against North Korean soldiers who whitethorn not want to conflict successful nan war" arsenic well, said Kim.

US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said connected Wednesday "there is evidence" that North Korean troops were already training successful Russia, and warned against them joining nan fight.

Experts connected nan country's subject told BI that soldiers sent location would beryllium put nether harsh measures to discourage them from deserting.

South Korea hesitates

Significant obstacles guidelines successful nan measurement of South Korea arming Ukraine, though. Not slightest is South Korea's long-standing prohibition connected sending subject assistance to overseas countries astatine war.

Chan said South Korea's President Yoon Suk-yeol was domestically unpopular and would brushwood difficulties repealing nan rule via South Korea's center-left-dominated National Assembly.

"North Korea's actions would person to coming a clearer and much contiguous threat to South Korea's nationalist information earlier we would expect nan National Assembly to authorize export of weapons to Ukraine," he said.

Another facet is South Korea's desire to not wholly destruct its narration pinch Russia, despite its increasing fears about nan Kremlin empowering North Korea and emboldening its leader Kim Jong Un, said Chain and Kim, nan analysts.

In return for North Korean shells and subject support successful Ukraine, nan Kremlin has sought to stymie UN inspections of North Korea's atomic programme and could beryllium prepared to manus it blase subject technology.

Entrapment dilemma

Chan said Yoon was figuring retired nan champion measurement to deter Russia.

"Seoul believes that nan threat to supply weapons gives it much leverage complete Moscow than it would person if South Korea were to statesman providing weapons directly," he said.

Future negotiated and waste and acquisition ties are different logic South Korea is hesitating to enactment — arsenic good arsenic nan imaginable of being pulled further into nan Ukraine warfare than it intends.

"There is simply a anticipation South Korea could beryllium shooting astatine Russians and/or North Koreans, and it would internationalize and widen nan warfare further," Sean McFate, a strategy professor astatine Georgetown University, told BI.

"Worst lawsuit is it sparks a atomic warfare connected nan Korean peninsula that drags nan US and China into equipped conflict."

But nan escalating confederation betwixt Russia and North Korea whitethorn soon scope a constituent wherever South Korea feels it needs to act.

Because of Russia's expanding reliance connected North Korea, Kim finds himself successful a powerful position to discuss blase exertion successful return.

Such an exchange, said Chan, could beryllium nan reddish statement that compels South Korea to get progressive successful nan Ukraine warfare and nonstop weapons.

Although it has nan subject powerfulness to alteration Ukraine to wounded Russia, it's an escalation that comes pinch existent risks.

As Ellen Kim put it: "North Korea's engagement dramatically raises nan consequence of entrapment for South Korea successful nan war."