Iran is weighing how to respond to Israel's attack. Here's what may happen next.

• Israel launched "precise strikes" connected Iran connected Saturday, sidesplitting 4 soldiers.
• The strikes were a long-awaited retaliation to an Iranian rocket onslaught earlier successful October.
• Here's really Iran whitethorn respond.

Iran is weighing up its adjacent move aft Israel executed a long-awaited retaliation this weekend.

The Israel Defense Forces said it carried retired "targeted and precise strikes" connected Iranian subject sites connected Saturday. Four soldiers were killed pursuing nan attack, Iran's subject said, according to nan IRNA authorities news agency.

The strikes, which came almost 4 weeks aft Iran launched astir 180 ballistic missiles astatine Israel successful consequence to nan killings of Hamas and Hezbollah leaders, look not to person been arsenic deadly arsenic immoderate had predicted; experts previously said that Israel whitethorn person considered assassination attempts aliases targeted Iran's atomic sites aliases lipid facilities.

Yaniv Voller, a elder teacher successful Middle East Politics astatine nan University of Kent, told Business Insider that a larger-scale onslaught would person fixed Iran "no prime but to escalate" nan conflict.

He added that unit from nan US apt drove Israel to prosecute a much restrained strategy.

Speaking astatine a property convention connected Saturday, a elder US management charismatic said nan US was not progressive pinch nan readying aliases execution of Israel's retaliatory operation.

However, they added that President Joe Biden and his nationalist information squad encouraged Israel "to behaviour a consequence that was targeted and proportional pinch debased consequence of civilian harm."

Questions are now being raised complete really Iran will proceed.

Iran could look for an 'off-ramp' aliases motorboat a 'small-scale' retaliation

Iran's ultimate leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, said connected Sunday that Iranian officials should determine really to respond to nan attacks, adding that they "should neither beryllium magnified nor downplayed."

Iran's Foreign Ministry wrote connected X that Iran considered itself "entitled and obliged to take sides against acts of outer aggression."

But Iran has besides seemingly sought to downplay nan effect of nan strikes, saying it successfully intercepted nan attacks while sustaining only "limited damage."

Jonathan Panikoff, nan head of nan Atlantic Council's Scowcroft Middle East Security Initiative, said that could beryllium a motion that Tehran "is looking for an off-ramp, moreover if it claims otherwise."

"Iran whitethorn beryllium disappointment that its deterrence against Israel has waned, but it's improbable to beryllium temerarious successful trying to reconstruct it," he said.

Speaking to The New York Times, Yoel Guzansky, a elder interrogator astatine nan Institute for National Security Studies, a Tel Aviv-based deliberation tank, said: "The euphony that I perceive from Iran is fundamentally saying, 'Oh, this is nothing,'" but he added that it still marked nan "beginning of a caller phase, a vulnerable one, pinch galore much sensitivities."

"It is imaginable for nan 2 sides to adjacent this information astatine least, and that we will not spot an Iranian retaliation — aliases if we'll spot it, it will beryllium mini successful scale," he added.

Voller said that should Iran take to respond, it could move to its proxies to take sides its atomic program.

"We must retrieve that Israel's extremity end is to bring nan Iranian atomic programme to an end, and immoderate Iranian retaliation will supply Israel pinch nan opportunity to proceed pursuing this goal," he added.

Israel could onslaught again

Voller said Iran whitethorn beryllium deterred from launching a nonstop counterattack because of Israel's way grounds and "proven capacity of reaching Iranian delicate targets."

He added that Israel's targeting of Iran's subject sites, including its aerial defense system, would let it to motorboat further aerial attacks if Iran were to escalate nan conflict.

Israel is besides 1 of nan world's apical subject spenders arsenic a stock of GDP, and it receives ample amounts of subject assistance from nan US to support what it calls a "qualitative subject edge" complete neighboring countries.

And caller events will apt person reinforced to Iran's leaders that nan state is "overmatched militarily," Panikoff said, "which, for a authorities that prioritizes stableness supra each else, makes entering into a full-scale warfare an illogical choice."

The Israeli subject has said it would beryllium "obligated to respond" if Iran attacked again.

Ellie Geranmayeh, nan lawman caput of nan Middle East and North Africa programme astatine nan European Council connected Foreign Relations, told The Times that further attacks from Israel shouldn't beryllium ruled out, particularly aft nan US predetermination successful November.

"There will beryllium a sigh of alleviation crossed Iran and nan region that nan US managed to restrain Netanyahu for now," Geranmayeh said, referencing Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

"But nan fearfulness is that this is simply a impermanent restraint starring up to nan US elections. The 'lame duck' shape up could beryllium a infinitesimal wherever we spot renewed Israeli attacks wrong Iran — arsenic a perceived aureate model to further deplete Iranian capabilities," she added.