Man who's taken $92 million in 2024 presidential election bets reveals why his platform is a better predictor than polls

Opinion polls opportunity nan race betwixt Kamala Harris and Donald Trump comes down to a coin flip.

But there's a statesmanlike prediction instrumentality that's comparatively caller to nan nationalist astatine ample and which tells a very different communicative astir nan 2024 title — likelihood posted to online wagering markets.

Those springiness nan erstwhile Republican president a commanding 66 percent changeable astatine winning connected November 5, measurement up of his Democratic rival Kamala Harris, astatine conscionable 34 percent.

Confused? Don't be, says Tarek Mansour, CEO of Kalshi, America's first ineligible online election prediction wagering platform, which has taken successful much than $85 cardinal successful bets tied to nan 2024 race.

'We should decidedly spot nan [wagering] markets,' Mansour told DailyMail.com this week.

'Prediction markets are places wherever group person money connected nan line, tegument successful nan game. People don't dishonesty pinch their money.'

Kalshi, Polymarket and different specified platforms person quickly emerged arsenic a measurement to put money connected elections legally and gauge who's ahead, aft cycles successful which erstwhile pollster forecasts collapsed and burned.

The sentiment polls, which impact asking group really they scheme to vote, said then-candidate Hillary Clinton would easy conclusion Trump successful 2016. 

In nan end, it was adjacent and nan Democrat mislaid — nan polls could not person been much wrong.

In 2020, they gave President Joe Biden a comfortable lead complete Trump; his last separator was overmuch slimmer.

This week, nan polling mean by Real Clear Politics, showed Trump pinch 48.5 percent of nan celebrated ballot against 48.4 percent for Harris — a dormant heat.

Kalshi, however, affords Trump a whopping 26-point lead complete Harris. Polymarket, a similar, crypto-based platform, puts his lead astatine 33 percent points.

Mansour and different tech bosses opportunity nan prediction markets are person to reality.

Kalshi already outperforms nan experts erstwhile predicting inflation, Fed liking complaint adjustments and moreover earthquakes, he said.

Elon Musk likewise has said nan betting markets are 'more meticulous than polls, arsenic existent money is connected nan line.'

Betting straight connected elections is restricted successful nan US.

But specified platforms arsenic Kalshi, PredictIt and Polymarket, are not strictly gambling sites — they get astir nan restrictions by serving arsenic venues for trading contracts connected early outcomes.

Kalshi became nan first ineligible prediction marketplace successful nan US acknowledgment to a national appeals tribunal ruling earlier this month.

Polymarket says it restricts US-based users from taking part, but crafty bettors sometimes get astir that by utilizing a instrumentality known arsenic a VPN, which tin hide their location.