NEIL BARNETT: We're already at war with Russia... we just haven't woken up to it yet

We're astatine warfare pinch Russia – we conscionable haven't woken up to it yet.

Enraged by nan West's support for Ukraine successful its struggle against Moscow's invasion, nan Kremlin has embarked connected a run of sabotage and disruption against Kyiv's European allies. And that includes us.

Only past week it emerged that a occurrence astatine a Birmingham storage successful July is believed to person been caused by an incendiary instrumentality planted by Russian spies.

This revelation came conscionable days aft nan caput of MI5, Ken McCullum, warned that Russia's intelligence agency has been connected a ngo to make 'sustained mayhem connected British and European streets'.

Delivering his yearly update connected information threats faced by nan UK, Mr McCallum said GRU agents had carried retired 'arson, sabotage and much vulnerable actions conducted pinch expanding recklessness' successful Britain.

Meanwhile, nan Kremlin is utilizing its extended repertoire of soiled tricks to further its imperial ambitions successful eastbound Europe by interfering successful this month's elections successful Moldova and Georgia, and calling connected its friends to thief retired successful Ukraine.

You mightiness deliberation that our Government would respond to Putin's progressively bellicose actions pinch immoderate sabre-rattling of its own. Far from it.

The UK is spending nan aforesaid proportionality of its nationalist income connected defence arsenic it was successful nan early 1930s, while nan Army is smaller than it has been astatine immoderate clip successful nan past 200 years.

With nan Budget coming up connected October 30, nan Government should state defence its number-one privilege and drastically ramp up spending connected security.

But we person not heard thing from nan Chancellor Rachel Reeves to bespeak that she will do specified a thing.

While Russia wouldn't beryllium foolish capable to equine a subject battle connected Britain, aliases truthful naive arsenic to deliberation a atomic onslaught would lead to thing but communal destruction, it is rather prepared to transportation retired undercover operations connected British soil.

And we person ne'er been much vulnerable.

At nan move of nan millennium, MI5 spent 20 per cent of its fund tackling what is known arsenic 'hostile authorities activity' by countries specified arsenic Russia.

By 2009 that number was a miserly 3 per cent, arsenic resources were diverted to fighting nan alleged 'war connected terror' against nan Islamist threat.

Today it is apt to person returned to 20 per cent aliases much but nan Security Service is still desperately trying to dress up for mislaid time.

So conscionable what are nan myriad ways Russia is waging its hybrid warfare connected Britain and our European friends – and what does nan Kremlin dream to summation from specified a prolonged proxy campaign?

One of Russia's astir effective and vulnerable assets is their web of sleeper agents astir nan world. These are Russian intelligence operatives profoundly embedded successful overseas countries, surviving nether mendacious identities.

Without a doubt, location are Russian sleeper agents - known arsenic 'illegals' wrong nan intelligence web - moving successful nan UK, perchance successful universities, laboratories and Government institutions.

A 2018 study by information think-tank nan Henry Jackson Society, entitled 'Putin Sees and Hears it All: How Russia's Intelligence Agencies Menace nan UK', claimed that nan Russian dictator had bolstered nan number of Russian spies operating successful nan UK five-fold complete nan erstwhile 8 years.

At nan time, nan report's writer Dr Andrew Foxall said 'Russia has arsenic galore arsenic 200 lawsuit officers successful nan UK, handling upwards of 500 agents'.

(It's worthy pointing retired that, arsenic nan headcount astatine nan Russian Embassy has been greatly reduced since 2022, nan number of intelligence officers will person fallen too.)

Exactly 2 years ago, successful October 2022, location was a uncommon apprehension of an forbidden successful Norway.

José Assis Giammaria, apparently a Brazilian world astatine nan University of Tromso, was unmasked arsenic a Russian called Mikhail Valeryevich Mikushin.

One of nan projects he was moving connected progressive collaborating pinch nan Norwegian authorities connected information threats successful 'Arctic Norway', chiefly from Russia.

Illegals are typically engaged successful espionage but immoderate are besides trained for sabotage and assassination.

As we saw pinch nan execution of British national Alexander Litvinenko successful 2006 and nan much caller Salisbury poisonings successful 2018, Russia is not acrophobic to perpetrate execution connected British territory.

And location person been attempts successful Europe, too. In July it was reported that US intelligence had foiled a Russian crippled to assassinate Armin Papperger, nan main executive of nan German arms shaper Rheinmetall, who was producing artillery shells and subject vehicles for Ukraine.

A number of nan astir superior crimes perpetrated connected overseas ungraded person been carried retired by Russia's infamous GRU Unit 29155. It is believed to person been responsible for nan poisoning of Sergei Skripal and his girl successful Salisbury, an attempted coup successful Montenegro successful 2016, cyber attacks against British institutions and a awesome detonation astatine a Czech munitions depot successful 2014.

However, owed to nan advent of biometric passports, it is progressively difficult to move caller Russian operatives into nan UK, which is why Russia has a caller trick: hiring mercenaries from 3rd countries to run connected their behalf. Six Bulgarian nationals - who arsenic EU citizens person nan correct to free activity wrong nan bloc - are presently awaiting proceedings successful nan UK accused of spying for Russia, for example.

One of nan GRU's targets is believed to person been a storage successful eastbound London belonging to a institution linked to Ukraine which caught occurrence successful March arsenic a consequence of a suspected arson attack. Seven men person been charged successful relationship pinch nan incident.

But possibly nan top imaginable threat posed by Russia's protector warfare is an onslaught connected Europe's undersea cables.

These fibre-optic cables are responsible for transmitting nan immense mostly of modern-day integer communications, arsenic good arsenic an estimated $10trillion (£7.7trillion) successful regular financial transactions.

In 2023 Putin's semipermanent ally, erstwhile Russian president and premier curate Dmitry Medvedev, announced that location was nary longer thing 'to forestall america from destroying nan water level cablegram communications of our enemies'.

So awesome is nan perceived threat to this undersea web that earlier this twelvemonth six countries - including nan UK and Germany - signed an statement connected further practice to protect infrastructure nether nan North Sea.

But not each of Moscow's targets are physical. Democracy, tolerance and nan norm of rule airs a acold greater threat to Putin's dictatorship than guns aliases missiles.

Ahead of Sunday's statesmanlike predetermination successful Europe's poorest country, Moldova, location were reports it was being plagued by Russian sabotage.

Sure enough, its pro-Western incumbent Maia Sandu blamed an 'unprecedented battle connected our country's state and democracy' by 'foreign forces' arsenic nan results came in.

She grounded to triumph an outright mostly and now faces a run-off ballot for nan presidency connected November 3, while a pivotal referendum connected EU rank held nan aforesaid time resulted successful a triumph by nan slimmest of margins.

It is alleged that Russia spent hundreds of millions of dollars buying votes successful Moldova, while besides supporting nan campaigns of pro-Kremlin candidates and moreover producing AI-generated deepfake videos that slandered their opponents.

The fearfulness now is that Moldova was a testing crushed for Russian strategies and akin attempts will beryllium made to sabotage different elections crossed nan continent, including Saturday's canvass successful Georgia.

But nary state is nether greater threat than Ukraine. Russia's friends are becoming progressively progressive successful nan conflict, either by supplying munitions aliases cannon fodder.

The Kremlin is already understood to person deployed Chinese and Iranian drones successful its violative and, earlier this month, Ukraine's president Volodomyr Zelensky claimed that North Korea is preparing to nonstop 10,000 troops to conflict alongside Russians connected nan frontline.

Perhaps nan biggest mobility now is: Why? From nan annexation of Crimea to nan penetration of Ukraine and now a hybrid warfare against nan full of Europe – what does nan Kremlin really dream to achieve?

Russia talks astir its fearfulness of being encircled by Nato. But I don't judge this is their existent concern. Moscow is much worried astir nan Russian masses being led astray by Western wide ideas.

And each enactment of sabotage connected British ungraded must beryllium viewed arsenic an effort to disagreement and disorientate nan British nationalist and nan institutions we judge in. Putin must ne'er beryllium allowed to succeed.

• Neil Barnett is nan co-author of Russia's Hybrid War Against nan UK: Time to Fight Back Against nan Kremlin, published by nan Henry Jackson Society