NFL straight-up picks, Week 9: Backing a furious Bears team and 2024's worst game (?)

Well, that was a unsmooth week to beryllium chalky. Week 8 delivered a fistful of upsets, immoderate of which were hilarious capable to warrant immoderate mislaid money followed them — including Aaron Rodgers’s schadenfreude and immoderate nan hellhole nan Chicago Bears did successful nan 4th fourth of their crippled successful Washington.

Week 9 mightiness beryllium likewise tricky. The season’s halfway constituent is marked by a bunch of roadworthy teams who look amended than their force connected insubstantial but who you don’t rather trust. Will nan Houston Texans return attraction of business against a New York Jets squad who perfectly needs a win? Will nan Washington Commanders person a let-down crippled successful a divisional showdown successful New York? What nan hellhole is Sunday’s New England Patriots-Tennessee Titans matchup going to be, speech from Red Zone’s slightest thrown-to game?

Well, let’s return a look and prime immoderate winners.

I ended 2023 arsenic Pickwatch’s apical expert successful a section of hundreds. In fact, I’m now doing immoderate broadside activity successful Pickwatch’s VIP Discord channels if you want to talk much astir these games.

Joining maine for 2024 is simply a six-person sheet ranging from FTW editors (Charles Curtis, Mary Clarke) to betting analysts (Prince Grimes) to NFL writers (Robert Zeglinski, Andrew Joseph and Meghan Hall, who is disconnected this week). Here are our Week 9 picks:

All likelihood via BetMGM

and:

Since our editing package occasionally struggles to make these picks ace clear, present they are successful an easier to publication (but intolerable to trim and paste) jpg:

Let’s break down 3 games based connected what I do and don’t like.

Why I for illustration this pick:

Cincinnati is approaching must-win status. After falling isolated successful Week 8, nan Raiders supply a captious get-right opportunity. The Bengals’ biggest weakness is simply a abruptly depressing defense. Fortunately for them, Las Vegas arrives pinch Gardner Minshew and nan league’s 32nd-ranked offense.

Why I don’t for illustration this pick:

The Raiders person engineered an undermanned, yet futile in-season rally earlier nether caput coach Antonio Pierce. Granted, nan enthusiasm and joyousness that comes pinch nary longer having to play for Josh McDaniels is nary longer successful play, but still.

Last week: 1-0
2024 to date: 6-2 (.750)

Why I for illustration this pick:

New England came to play against nan Jets, because this is simply a franchise that hates nan Jets. It is besides a franchise ambivalent to nan Titans. Drake Maye is moving done nan concussion protocol and Jacoby Brissett has been 1 of nan fewer quarterbacks successful nan NFL less businesslike than Will Levis. The Patriots’ depleted discourtesy leans heavy connected nan run, wherever nan Titans boast a apical 10 defense.

Why I don’t for illustration this pick:

The Pats are trending somewhat upward. From a rebuild standpoint, there’s much worth to Tennessee successful losing this crippled (and floating to nan apical of adjacent year’s draught to find a quarterback) than winning it. If Drake Maye does play, he’ll beryllium nan game’s champion QB moreover if he’s only 85 percent.

Last week: 1-0
2024 to date: 4-4 (.500)

The Bears closed past week arsenic underdogs, which kept this conception alive. They did not adjacent retired a damn point connected nan Commanders’ Hail Mary, however, which is why I’m now batting .250 erstwhile it comes to picking dogs.

And yet, present I americium erstwhile more, screaming into nan void and expecting to perceive thing beyond my ain echo.

Why I for illustration this pick:

Caleb Williams struggled against a bad defense, but yet came online to find his hit pinch 3 drives of astatine slightest 59 yards successful nan last 17 minutes of Week 8. Now he goes from Washington’s 22nd-ranked portion to nan 27th-ranked Cardinals. The Bears defense conscionable stifled a move dual-threat backmost and kept him retired of nan extremity area for 60 afloat minutes past week. Now that portion gets to play angry aft getting torched aft nan timepiece ran down.

Why I don’t for illustration this pick:

Arizona is 3-1 erstwhile James Conner averages much than 3.5 yards per carry. Chicago is allowing 4.7 yards per unreserved this play and ranks only 17th successful EPA allowed connected rushing plays.

Uh… (points to nan wide vicinity of Week 8).

Last week: 0-1
2024 to date: 2-6 (.250)