NFL Week 9 Picks - TD scorer bets, Jayden Daniels for MVP, and more!

Betting Life’s Matthew Freedman, Matt LaMarca, and Geoff Ulrich stock their rest-of-season basking takes, uncover their bets for Week 9 touchdown scorers, show immoderate emotion for nan Commanders, and more! Assemble a heap of rotting, smashed pumpkins and person a spot astatine our master roundtable!

For much free picks and betting tips crossed each sports, subordinate nan Betting Life Newsletter!

Touchdown Scorers

• Geoff has been connected occurrence with his TD bets column this season. So we want to unfastened this up to nan group: What’s your favourite TD stake for this week? 

Matthew Freedman: Kyren Williams Anytime TD (-195, FanDuel). Williams is featured successful my Week 9 Freedman’s Favorites (RB Edition), and a large logic is his scoring prowess. He has recovered nan extremity area successful each crippled this twelvemonth (10 TDs) and is No. 2 successful nan convention pinch 11 carries wrong nan five-yard line. I person him projected for 0.84 TDs and a 71.0% chance to score, which comes retired to -245 (per our Fantasy Life Odds Calculator). In 8 games, nan Seahawks person allowed 8 TDs to RBs.

LaMarca: I’m for illustration Kevin Costner successful Draft Day, but alternatively of carrying a portion of insubstantial that says “Vontae Mack nary matter what,” it’s “David Montgomery anytime touchdown.” I don’t understand why this feline is ever beneath -200 to people a touchdown, and he’s nether that period a lot. He was astir moreover money past week vs. nan Panthers, and he’ll apt beryllium underpriced again vs. nan Packers. He’s now scored a touchdown successful 20 of 24 games arsenic a personnel of nan Lions (including nan playoffs), including successful six of 7 games this season. The only objection was a crippled wherever he exited temporarily pinch an injury. We’re still waiting for lines successful Lions-Packers arsenic we await further clarity connected Jordan Love, but I’ll beryllium connected Montgomery erstwhile this yet posts.

Ulrich: Brock Bowers. Despite starring each TEs successful receptions pinch 52, Bowers has scored only erstwhile this season. In contrast, 49ers TE George Kittle, who leads each TEs successful TDs, now has six scores connected conscionable 40 catches. Bowers has a chance to dress up immoderate crushed this week arsenic he’s up against a Bengals defense that has allowed nan seventh-most imagination points per crippled to opposing TEs – and 4 TDs to nan position complete their past 4 games.  At +165 aliases better, I’m good betting that Bowers sees immoderate affirmative regression and gets into nan extremity area this Sunday against a porous Bengals defense. 

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Week 9 Upsets

• Who is your favourite underdog this week?

Matthew Freedman: Cowboys +126 astatine Falcons (FanDuel). I’m still skeptical that nan Falcons, contempt their division-leading 5-3 record, are really a bully team. They person a -1 constituent differential contempt having already played 4 games against anemic NFC South opponents. If we region those divisional games, nan Falcons are 1-3 pinch that 1 triumph coming by conscionable 1 point. The Cowboys are 3-4, but their 4 losses are to 3 of nan league’s champion teams (Ravens, Lions, 49ers) and nan Saints, whose violative playcaller (OC Klint Kubiak) was uniquely positioned to utilization nan Cowboys defense acknowledgment to his erstwhile clip pinch nan Vikings moving nether DC Mike Zimmer. I’m not saying nan Cowboys are bully — but nan Falcons aren’t bully either — which makes this number excessively large.

Matt LaMarca: I for illustration a mates of large underdogs to perchance screen (Raiders +7.5 and Buccaneers +9.0), but I deliberation the Browns are nan astir apt underdog to triumph outright. I really for illustration their chances vs. nan Chargers, who proceed to triumph successful nan ugliest measurement possible. Last week’s triumph complete nan Saints was overmuch person than nan last people indicated, but they yet pulled distant successful nan 4th quarter. The Browns’ triumph complete nan Ravens was overmuch much impressive, and Jameis Winston has fixed their discourtesy a activity of caller air. That should revitalize nan defense, which was a historically bully portion past year. 

Geoff Ulrich: Colts +5.0. Indianapolis made nan reliable organizational determination to chair Anthony Richardson for Joe Flacco, and nan timing whitethorn person been perfect. Minnesota’s sack complaint has travel down disconnected their basking commencement to nan play – which conversely has led to their secondary getting smoked for six TDs complete their past 2 starts. Flacco is simply a acold amended pouch passer, and much poised to return advantage of this benignant of situation. With nan Colts’ defense playing amended and getting DL DeForest Buckner backmost past week, they should beryllium capable to make a crippled of it against nan abruptly reeling Vikings. 

For much free picks and betting tips crossed each sports, subordinate nan Betting Life Newsletter!

Rest of Season Hot Takes

• What’s your hottest return for nan remainder of this season?

Freedman: Jayden Daniels Wins MVP (+1600, DraftKings)

I don’t cognize if I really judge this, but astatine 16-1 likelihood I’m unfastened to being persuaded. If you return a look astatine our Futures Odds Tool, you’ll spot that nan Commanders are +700 to gain nan No. 1 seed successful nan NFC. And that makes sense: They are 6-2 successful a mediocre division. With a small luck, they could get a postseason bye. If that happens, it’s apt that Daniels — who is No. 1 successful EPA + CPOE (0.193, per RBs Don’t Matter) — will person an MVP-caliber run and beryllium THE communicative of nan 2024 season. If nan Commanders are priced correctly astatine 7-1, past Daniels is almost surely mispriced astatine 16-1 successful nan MVP market. 

LaMarca: Joe Flacco does it again. After redeeming nan Browns’ play past twelvemonth pursuing nan wounded to DeShaun Watson, this time, he shows up to bring nan Colts to nan postseason. The Colts were underdogs to make nan playoffs this year, but this roster has talent. Jonathan Taylor and DeForest Buckner returned to nan lineup past week, while Josh Downs is emerging arsenic a legit threat astatine receiver. The AFC Wild Card spots consciousness beautiful wide open, and I don’t deliberation it’s intolerable that they overtake nan Texans for nan division. This isn’t ace spicy — they’re presently +125 to make nan postseason — but I deliberation that’s a coagulated value.

Ulrich: The Vikings miss nan playoffs. 

The Vikings are now connected a two-game losing streak and conscionable mislaid 1 of their champion players to wounded successful OL Christian Darrisaw. They’ve besides gotten a spot unlucky up of Week 9 pinch nan Colts benching Anthony Richardson for Joe Flacco, whom we person classed arsenic a +1.6 upgrade successful our QB Spread worth chart.  

Minnesota’s past 2 games are besides against Green Bay and Detroit–two of nan champion teams successful nan league–so if they don’t rebound this week, things will get tight for them fast. You tin still get them arsenic large arsenic +240 (DraftKings) to miss nan playoffs, which I deliberation offers decent value. 

You tin find much of our NFL free bets successful our stake locator arsenic well. And upset picks tin beryllium recovered successful our NFL betting model for Week 9.

Rapid Fire Betting Questions – 5 connection answers

Answer nan pursuing questions successful precisely 5 words:

• How galore much starts will Joe Flacco make Rest of Season?

Freedman: Nine positive postseason. So 10.

LaMarca: As galore arsenic he can.

Ulrich: How galore games are left?

• What do you deliberation of nan Browns remainder of season?

Freedman: A batch of adjacent losses.

LaMarca: Competitive successful astir each game.

Ulrich: Fun. Jameis/Tillman > Watson/Cooper. 

• Give maine a NCAAF stake I tin make for this weekend! Please!

Freedman: I tail Thor Nystrom’s bets.

LaMarca: OSU -3.5. Always slice Franklin.

Ulrich: Florida astatine Georgia Over 52.0.

• Who will triumph nan NFC East?

Freedman: Commanders fans: “MVP! MVP! MVP!”

LaMarca: The Commanders are for real.

Ulrich: Jayden Daniels. TKO complete Hurts. 

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