Polling 'Nostradamus' tells voters to ignore polls and have faith in his prediction for 2024 winner

With conscionable days to spell until predetermination day, statesmanlike historiographer dubbed nan 'Nostradamus' of polling experts Allan Lichtman has remained staunch connected his prediction that Democratic nominee Kamala Harris will go nan adjacent US president.

The American University professor, 77, is known for fashioning his ain predetermination exemplary that has correctly forecast each statesmanlike victor since 1984. 

Last month, he garnered a activity of disapproval erstwhile he revealed that Harris had met what he believed to beryllium nan captious objectives for victory. 

Now, speaking to CTV News, Lichtman said that his prediction 'does not alteration pinch respect to nan ephemeral events of nan campaign'.

He besides explained that his prediction is 'based connected a basal knowing of really American statesmanlike elections really work, arsenic votes up aliases down connected nan spot and capacity of nan White House party'.

He relies connected an unorthodox strategy of ignoring nan polls, based connected what he calls '13 keys' to nan White House, a exemplary he developed successful 1981 alongside his geophysicist friend Vladimir Keilis-Borok. 

The exemplary is based connected 120 years of statesmanlike predetermination outcomes and moreover enabled Lichtman to telephone Trump's unexpected 2016 triumph a period earlier nan election.

He past utilized his maneuver to correctly foretell nan result successful nan 2020 elections.

As a result, he told CTV: 'I surely do not alteration my prediction based connected polls.

'If I had done that I would person been incorrect successful my prediction of Trump successful 2016 erstwhile each nan polls said thing else'.  

Explaining nan mysterious 13 keys to nan New York Times, Lichtman said: 'They are 13 large picture, true-false questions that pat into nan spot and capacity of nan White House party.

The 13 keys include: Midterm gains, incumbency, superior contest, 3rd party, short-term economy, semipermanent economy, argumentation change, societal unrest, White House scandal, incumbent charisma, challenger charisma, overseas argumentation failure, and overseas argumentation success.

The historiographer besides told CTV astir nan 'vulgar, scurrilous, violent' dislike he received aft making his prediction astir Harris past month. 

'I person never, ever had nan benignant of dislike heaped upon maine that I've seen this time,' Lichtman expressed.  

'This is nan toxic authorities that Donald Trump has introduced successful our society,' Lichtman said. 'It ne'er happened earlier nan advent of Trump.'

It comes aft Lichtman precocious discussed connected his YouTube transmission of nan 'election anxiety' Americans are experiencing up of predetermination day. 

'A batch of group judge nan early of nan state is connected nan statement here, and nan populist of America could beryllium a point of nan past. I don't deliberation that's an illegitimate fear.

'I'm truthful worried astir nan early of our election, you know, I deliberation I've said this earlier – populist is precious but for illustration each precious things, it tin beryllium destroyed,' he said.

Last month, different predetermination forecaster who correctly called nan 2020 consequence besides anticipated a landslide triumph for Harris.

Northwestern University information intelligence Thomas Miller said that Harris will sound Trump successful a landslide election, telling Fortune Magazine: 'It's gone from a drastic landslide successful Trump's guidance to a drastic landslide for Harris'. 

Miller first gained attraction aft he accurately predicted nan 2020 statesmanlike predetermination by unconventionally utilizing betting markets alternatively than accepted polls to forecast nan outcome. 

He achieved this by processing a model, which is based connected 16 statesmanlike elections, that converted betting prices into nan celebrated ballot and Electoral College projections. 

This exemplary shows a constrictive relationship betwixt betting likelihood and nan anticipated celebrated vote.