Polymarket's pro-Trump election predictions aren't so surprising when you look at the rest of the site

• The betting tract Polymarket has emerged arsenic a basking taxable successful nan 2024 statesmanlike race.
• Trump has a 66% chance of winning based connected bets there. National polls mostly show nan title tied.
• Wagers successful its popular civilization conception show nan bro-y vibe of nan site: Zyn, Andrew Tate, and Hawk Tuah.

I americium not an master successful gambling, markets, aliases statesmanlike politics. But I consciousness assured that I'm an master successful assessing nan "vibe" of an online space.

And erstwhile it comes to nan wagering tract Polymarket — to get a consciousness of nan group who are placing wagers — I taxable that nan spot to look is not nan statesmanlike race, which has drawn nan astir attraction and money, but successful nan "Pop Culture" section.

Let's look astatine immoderate of nan wagers:

• Will Trump opportunity "skibidi" earlier nan election?
• Will Kamala Harris spell connected Joe Rogan's podcast earlier nan election?
• Will Donald Trump opportunity "mog" successful 2024? ("Mog" is Gen Z slang for being amended looking than personification else.)
• Will nan US prohibition Zyn?
• Will Roaring Kitty spell to jailhouse successful 2024?
• Will Trump do a podcast pinch Hawk Tuah Girl?
• Will location beryllium a Lunchly recall? (Lunchly refers to nan premade lunches from MrBeast, KSI, and Logan Paul. Some group connected societal media person said theirs were moldy.)

You tin get a beautiful clear image of nan vibe connected Polymarket, wherever group spot bets utilizing crypto. These are nan liking areas of what Max Read calls "the Zynernet" — crypto-loving, Zyn-chomping, Joe Rogan-listening, Barstool-reading, Draft Kings-playing, antheral Gen Z'ers. This online world isn't explicitly governmental aliases MAGA, but tin beryllium right-leaning. It's nan young antheral podcast web that Trump has tapped into pinch appearances connected podcasts hosted by Logan Paul, Theo Von, and Adin Ross.

The "Pop Culture" bets aren't each Zynternet-focused. There are different much neutral ones, for illustration wagers connected nan top-grossing movie of nan twelvemonth aliases nan opening container agency figures for "Wicked" later this month. But of nan 43 bets disposable successful nan section, each but a fewer person a benignant of terminally online bro-y flavor. (There are 3 bets astir Taylor Swift, for example, but each of them are astir her narration pinch Travis Kelce.)

So why does this matter?

Some group are paying attraction to Polymarket because they deliberation it mightiness beryllium giving existent penetration into nan predetermination — moreso than accepted polls. Polymarket's founder, Shayne Coplan, told The New Yorker: "As price-discovery mentation would go, a ton of clueless group trading would beryllium much predictive and meticulous than 1 expert."

But recently, immoderate funny worldly has happened: There's been talk of a azygous large bettor — a "whale" — putting down a stake worthy astir $30 cardinal that Trump will win. That benignant of money from conscionable 1 personification could extremity nan scales. Trump's likelihood connected Polymarket person gone from 48% connected October 1 to 66% now, each while national polls are fundamentally tied. US users besides aren't allowed to usage Polymarket, but I wonderment really this is policed fixed nan bets are successful crypto.

I asked Polymarket for comment. They haven't responded.

Meanwhile, I'm not nan only personification who's noticed nan vibes connected nan betting site. In New York Magazine, John Herrman pointed out nan comments conception is besides revealing:

I tin understand nan logic that group who put their ain money connected a stake are going to do it passionately. A sports-betting New Yorker mightiness put money connected nan Dodgers to triumph nan World Series, moreover if they are rooting for nan Yankees.

But erstwhile you look astatine nan vibe segment connected Polymarket, it's difficult not to ideate that immoderate bettors person a worldview gleaned from consuming very circumstantial kinds of media that would lead them to person definite ideas astir really nan predetermination will spell — ideas that don't statement up pinch mainstream polling.

For nan record, I deliberation nan likelihood that Trump will opportunity "skibidi" earlier nan predetermination are measurement excessively low.