Reporter's Notebook: The hard stuff is yet to come

I’ve mislaid way of really galore times group person asked if I will beryllium gladsome erstwhile nan predetermination is over. 

Truth beryllium told, conscionable aft nan predetermination is erstwhile nan difficult worldly begins.

Election Day is Tuesday, but successful reality, that’s conscionable nan opening of nan process. It whitethorn return days to benignant retired who voters person chosen arsenic president. Control of nan House is razor tight. It whitethorn boil down to a fistful of races decided by a expansive full of respective 1000 votes. So don’t for a infinitesimal deliberation we automatically cognize which statement will beryllium successful nan mostly arsenic predetermination officials benignant each of that out. There’s a script wherever a bladed separator of contested seats successful nan House could outpouring respective weeks of challenges. 

Moreover, Article I, Section 5 of nan Constitution dictates that nan House and Senate "shall beryllium nan Judge of nan elections, Returns and Qualifications of its ain Members." And it’s nan caller House successful nan caller Congress adjacent twelvemonth that will determine whether to spot group if there’s a dispute.

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Former President Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris (Getty Images)

Of course, that’s provided nan House tin elite a speaker erstwhile nan caller Congress is constitutionally mandated to statesman connected Jan. 3. Don’t hide that House Republicans incinerated a full of 27 days connected 2 abstracted occasions to elite erstwhile House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, R-Calif., and existent Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La.

We’ll travel backmost to that successful a moment. 

In nan meantime, let’s tally done immoderate of nan hazards that could unfold aft nan last ballot is cast.

Let’s commencement pinch erstwhile we mightiness study which statement controls either nan House aliases Senate.

Election Day fell connected Nov. 8 for nan 2022 midterms, but it wasn’t clear that Democrats held their Senate majority until precocious connected nan evening of Nov. 12, erstwhile Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto, D-Nev., retained her seat. 

Determining House power took moreover longer successful 2022. Remember that McCarthy touted nan anticipation that Republicans mightiness marshal arsenic galore arsenic 50 seats. Republicans won nan House by a thread, but nan GOP mostly was not clear until Nov. 16. 

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In 2020, astir news organizations projected connected predetermination nighttime that Democrats would clasp nan House, but it wasn’t until December that a image emerged showing really adjacent Democrats came to losing their majority. It took weeks to benignant retired aggregate House contests, decided by very fewer votes.

Control of nan Senate from nan 2020 midterms wasn’t moreover established until 2021. It took until January and a brace of runoffs successful Georgia for it to beryllium clear that Democrats tied nan Senate and frankincense seized nan mostly acknowledgment to Vice President Kamala Harris successful her capacity arsenic president of nan Senate.

These prolonged predetermination determinations are not a byproduct of caller polarization and controversy.

Democrats captured nan Senate successful nan 2006 midterms, but it wasn’t clear until 2 days aft nan election, erstwhile Democratic challenger Jim Webb defeated incumbent Republican Sen. George Allen successful Virginia.

It’s apt we’ll person clarity connected nan Senate sooner alternatively than later this year. If Republicans bask a large night, who won nan Senate could beryllium known connected predetermination night. That’s particularly if nan GOP is en way to a 53- aliases 54-seat majority. But if competitory Senate contests successful Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Montana, Michigan, Nevada, Texas and elsewhere are each tight, it whitethorn return a fewer days to find which statement has nan majority.

Regardless, nan biggest bid of business facing nan Senate is who emerges arsenic nan caller Republican leader.

Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., is stepping down from his activity station successful early January but remaining successful nan Senate. Senate Minority Whip John Thune, R-S.D., erstwhile Senate Majority Whip John Cornyn, R-Texas, and Sen. Rick Scott, R-Fla., are vying to win McConnell arsenic nan body’s apical Republican. But there’s chatter that Sen. Steve Daines, R-Mont., aliases different candidates could emerge.

House Speaker Mike Johnson accused CBS News of cutting captious discourse to answers he gave during a ‘Face nan Nation’ quality connected Sunday. (Getty Images)

The action of Senate Republican leader could hinge connected whether Harris aliases erstwhile President Trump wins – or, if nan GOP claims nan Senate aliases fails to seizure nan majority. A concealed ballot for GOP leader is slated for Nov. 13, and if it’s clear that Trump is headed to nan White House, his power could sway who Republican senators prime arsenic their adjacent leader.

Then there’s nan House.

Republicans clasp a narrow, single-digit advantage successful nan House correct now. There are much than 30 seats successful battleground districts that could plaything nan power successful 1 guidance aliases nan other.

But erstwhile will we know?

The House Republican Conference convenes its activity predetermination connected Nov. 13, and nan House Democratic Caucus besides meets astir that time. Regardless of if they are successful nan mostly aliases minority, House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, D-N.Y., will lead his statement successful nan caller Congress. Jeffries is poised to ascend to nan speakership adjacent twelvemonth if Democrats flip nan House.

But for nan GOP, things could get messy.

Which statement controls nan House mightiness not beryllium settled by nan clip House Republicans clasp their activity election. Republican Conference rules let definite GOP candidates whose races person not been called to travel to Washington successful November and December for nan freshmen predisposition and ballot successful those activity elections. In different words, group who mightiness not yet go House members could determine who nan GOP picks for activity posts and formally nominates arsenic nan Republican campaigner for speaker connected nan level Jan. 3.

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One elder House Republican root told Fox location could beryllium a push to hold those activity elections if power of nan House isn’t settled. This could beryllium an rumor if there’s a contingent of GOP candidates successful uncalled races who could wield excessively overmuch power successful nan backstage balloting.

So here’s nan rumor facing Johnson: If Republicans clasp nan House, and particularly if they prime up a sizable chunk of seats, nan Louisiana Republican astir apt returns to nan speakership. A "President-elect Trump" would surely bolster that scenario. But if it’s a mini majority, Johnson could triumph nan information for speaker successful nan GOP convention but struggle to prevail connected nan level early adjacent year.

Here’s why: There’s a group of 3 to possibly arsenic galore arsenic 10 existent House Republicans who person a problem pinch Johnson. Johnson only needs a elemental mostly of nan House Republican Conference to get nan information for speaker and guidelines earlier nan full House successful January.

It’s astir nan math.

Let’s opportunity Republicans person a mini majority: 223 seats. In nan November convention vote, Johnson only needs 112 votes to go nan nominee for speaker. But erstwhile nan full House convenes connected Jan. 3, Johnson – aliases immoderate different nominee – will request an outright mostly of each members casting ballots for a campaigner by name. So if nan House is astatine 435 and each members ballot for personification by name, nan magic number is 218.

You spot nan problem.

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This is nan aforesaid rumor that vexed McCarthy and nan different GOP nominees who grounded to go speaker past October. 

Ironically, it’s easier for Johnson to go number leader if Republicans mislaid their majority. That’s because nan number leader conscionable needs nan mostly of his aliases her convention aliases caucus. So let’s opportunity nan GOP is relegated to nan number pinch 217 seats. Johnson conscionable needs 109 votes to triumph nan conference.

If there’s a problem electing a speaker connected nan level successful January, 1 should believe it’s wrapped up fast. That’s because Congress must commencement certifying nan Electoral College connected Jan. 6. After starting its ballot for speaker connected Jan. 3, 2023, nan House didn’t elite McCarthy until nan wee hours of Jan. 7. Any hold successful electing a speaker would foment awesome issues for certifying nan electoral ballot – particularly if nan statesmanlike title is contested. 

Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell arrives astatine nan U.S. Capitol for a gathering pinch Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy astir nan warfare effort against Russia, connected Sept. 26. (AP/J. Scott Applewhite)

The House of Representatives cannot do anything, including swearing successful members, until it elects a speaker. Period. A conflict complete nan speakership could paralyze nan House and consequence delaying nan electoral ballot count. This is simply a nightmare script that has nan imaginable to eclipse nan chaos of nan Electoral College certification successful 2021. 

And if things weren’t fraught enough, here’s different chaotic card: nan authorities runs retired of money connected Dec. 20.

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Johnson meandered done a big of interim spending bills from past autumn until spring, flirting pinch aggregate authorities shutdowns. The speaker ran nan nonstop aforesaid playbook that partially costs McCarthy nan speakership. Johnson enraged scores of conservatives by green-lighting a measure to money Ukraine and advancing an omnibus spending measure successful nan spring.

Lots of conservatives person grievances pinch Johnson, but Johnson could look problem if he attempts to move immoderate measure to avert a December shutdown that lacks nan blessing of cardinal conservatives. Granted, nan sign-off connected immoderate spending scheme by a "President-elect Trump" could shield Johnson, and if Trump is elected, he apt makes nan telephone connected what he wants Johnson to do. The erstwhile president’s power shield apt blunts immoderate rebuke of Johnson.

That said, a misstep by Johnson connected nan spending measure could perchance costs him nan speakership if nan GOP holds nan majority. And if Republicans triumph nan House, Senate and White House, don’t expect immoderate thief from Democrats. While successful nan minority, House Democrats person carried gallons of h2o for Republicans. They’ve lugged galore must-pass bills to debar authorities shutdowns crossed nan decorativeness statement for astir 2 years. If nan GOP attains unified authorities this fall, Democrats could push backmost from nan array successful nan lame-duck convention and show House Republicans to fig it retired themselves.

Heretofore, House Republicans person not shown they tin beforehand a spending measure connected their ain that would go law. That’s why there’s a consequence of nan caller Congress opening pinch a authorities shutdown successful January.

That’s precisely what happened successful precocious 2018, drifting into early 2019. The authorities was shuttered arsenic a caller Congress began that January. 

So present is nan utter worst-case scenario: a authorities shutdown, coupled pinch a analyzable speaker’s election, frankincense sparking a hold successful certification of nan Electoral College successful nan protector of a disputed statesmanlike election.

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I’ll fto you publication that each again to digest it. 

So nan campaigning and voting concludes adjacent week, but nan hardest worldly is astir to begin.