Russia's economy faces a demographic disaster and risks seeing its population reduced by half by the end of this century, think tank says

• Russia's organization could shrink by half by nan extremity of nan century, an Atlantic Council study says.
• The Russia-Ukraine warfare has accelerated nan organization decline.
• A shrinking organization threatens Russia's system and could consequence successful worker shortages and debased growth.

Russia's system has a dire demographic problem connected its hands, and nan federation could spot its organization slashed successful half by nan extremity of nan century, an Atlantic Council study says.

The study from nan Washington, DC, deliberation vessel — written by Harley Balzer, a professor emeritus astatine Georgetown University — points to Russia's long-running population decline. The nation's wide organization maturation has shrunk complete nan past 10 years, according to World Bank data.

That diminution has been exacerbated by nan Russia-Ukraine war. More than 300,000 Russian troops had died aliases been injured by nan extremity of 2023, US intelligence officials estimated, and astir a cardinal Russians fled nan country aft Vladimir Putin ordered nan full-scale penetration of Ukraine.

The demographic inclination spells problem for Russia's economy, which is already dealing pinch a severe worker shortage. At nan extremity of 2023, Russia was short a grounds 5 cardinal workers, according to an estimate from nan Russian Academy of Science's Institute of Economics.

Russia has turned to migrant and moreover prison labor to supplement its workforce, but those aren't sustainable solutions to its organization problem, Balzer says.

"Putin's authorities has not evinced visible interest that Russia's organization mightiness beryllium trim successful half by century's end. Unless Russia's leaders tin create and finance a much effective group of policies, nan only solutions to organization diminution will beryllium a operation of incorporating non-Russian territory and/or migration from Asia and Africa," Balzer said successful nan report this week. "As Russia's organization continues to decline, immigrants will beryllium progressively captious to economical recovery," he added.

Experts person said a shrinking organization could consequence successful respective problems for Russia's economy, specified arsenic little maturation and productivity. The Atlantic Council antecedently predicted that by 2026, Russia's system could autumn down Indonesia's, wherever nan organization is rising.

"Putin's prime of timing for subject aggression successful Ukraine mightiness person reflected an knowing that Russia's demographic (and economic) business would not amended successful nan adjacent 2 decades. However, nan warfare is turning a increasing situation into a catastrophe," nan caller study says.

Russia's system isn't connected coagulated footing to statesman with, peculiarly arsenic its penetration of Ukraine grows much costly and damages its economical ties to world markets. One UC Berkeley economist antecedently told Business Insider that Moscow was connected way to autumn into a severe recession by nan extremity of nan year, pointing to Russia's collapsed power waste and acquisition and its waning entree to nan US dollar.

Editor's note: This communicative has been updated to bespeak that nan study was written solely by economist Harley Balzer.

This article was primitively published successful August 2024.