Russia's friendship with North Korea may have backfired

• South Korea says North Korean troops are being trained by Russia to conflict successful Ukraine.
• The Kremlin said nan practice betwixt nan 2 was "within nan model of world law."
• Russia is worried that South Korea will nonstop weapons to thief Ukraine, according to a US deliberation tank.

The Kremlin's confederation pinch North Korea whitethorn person bolstered its run successful Ukraine, but it's travel astatine a perchance superior cost.

South Korea's authorities this week signaled its fury complete nan increasing confederation betwixt nan 2 countries.

In a meeting pinch Russia ambassador Georgiy Zinoviev, South Korea demanded nan withdrawal of North Korean soldiers which it said were being trained by Russia to conflict successful Ukraine.

Yoon Suk Yeol, a elder charismatic astatine nan agency of South Korea's president, said connected Tuesday that South Korea is now mulling sending weapons to thief Ukrainian troops.

In response, nan Kremlin seemed eager to reassure South Korea. Zinoviev said nan confederation betwixt Russia and North Korea was "within nan model of world law."

Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said that nan North Korea-Russia confederation "should not interest anyone." He besides dismissed reports of nan unit deployment arsenic "contradictory."

Earlier that time South Korea had placed unit connected nan Kremlin, releasing satellite images that it said showed 1,500 North Korean subject unit being sent to Russia.

Analysts astatine nan Insitute for nan Study of War, a US deliberation tank, said that nan Kremlin appears worried astir nan backlash from Seoul.

"The Kremlin's evident desire to guarantee South Korea that its practice pinch North Korea is not a threat to Seoul suggests that nan Kremlin remains very concerned astir nan imaginable of Seoul's imaginable pivot towards providing Ukraine pinch basal subject support, and nan implications of worsened relations pinch Seoul for Russian information interests successful nan Asia Pacific region," its analysts wrote connected Monday.

Russia's vulnerable caller alliance

For decades, South Korea has been successful an uneasy standoff pinch its isolated and authoritarian neighbor, North Korea.

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un has many times menaced nan South pinch nan imaginable of attack, while Seoul and its ally, nan US, person sought to isolate North Korea and stymie its atomic weapons program.

But Russia's penetration of Ukraine has shaken nan precarious equilibrium of powerfulness successful East Asia.

Russia formed a caller subject confederation pinch North Korea to unafraid severely needed ammunition from North Korean stockpiles for its faltering run successful Ukraine.

South Korea is progressively concerned astir nan technological capabilities and information guarantees North Korea has apt gained from Russia successful return.

Russia, antecedently a backer of sanctions designed to curtail North Korea's atomic program, is now helping North Korea evade them.

Analysts from Bloomberg said successful June a warfare connected nan Korean peninsula could consequence successful nan nonaccomplishment of millions of quality lives, and costs nan world system astir $4 trillion.

South Korea is simply a semiconductor and electronics manufacturing hub, meaning a disruption to its system could person monolithic knock-on world effects.

"The Ukraine warfare and its spillover to nan Korean peninsula are taking a difficult toll connected nan Seoul-Moscow relationship," wrote expert Ellen Kim of nan Center for Strategic and International Studies successful February.

Noting that "several factors could push nan ROK-Russia [South Korea-Russia] relations disconnected nan cliff."

South Korea says it could limb Ukraine

In consequence to Russia's strengthened narration pinch North Korea, South Korea is threatening to limb Ukraine successful its conflict against nan Russian invasion.

Russia's caller defense pact pinch North Korea successful June seemed to people a tipping point, pinch South Korea saying that it could overturn its long-standing prohibition connected sending subject assistance to countries astatine warfare to thief Ukraine.

It's a threat South Korea reiterated Tuesday, arsenic officials from South Korea's National Security Council warned that nan dispatch of North Korean troops to Russia was a "grave information threat."

It's a worrying imaginable for Russia, pinch South Korea holding immense stockpiles of weapons that could thief extremity nan warfare successful Kyiv's favor.

South Korea has ample numbers of 155-millimeter artillery shells, a limb Ukraine has been desperately short of and that its Western friends person struggled to nutrient successful capable quantities.

The New York Times successful 2023 reported that President Joe Biden has pressured South Korea to thief it limb Ukraine pinch desperately needed shells, but South Korea had astatine that constituent hesistated.

But successful consequence to nan latest escalation successful North Korea's collaboration pinch Russia, South Korea again hinted that thing was disconnected nan array arsenic it weighed really to respond.

South Korea's First Vice Foreign Minister Kim Hong Kyun said successful a connection Monday that nan state would respond pinch "all disposable intends successful practice pinch nan world organization to immoderate acts that frighten nan halfway interests of South Korea."