The clues in 2024 early voting that could make Kamala Harris nervous

Millions of group person already formed ballots successful nan 2024 election arsenic Kamala Harris and Donald Trump make their last pitches to voters crossed nan state pinch conscionable 2 weeks spell earlier Election Day.

While aggregate states are breaking records pinch early voting, location has been a displacement from erstwhile voters headed to nan polls successful nan 2020 statesmanlike election.

More than 18 cardinal group person already voted successful nan 2024 election, according to tracking by nan University of Florida Election Lab.

That includes astir 7 cardinal who voted early in-person and much than 11.6 cardinal ballots which person already been returned by mail.

But location are immoderate shifts from nan 2020 election wherever Democrats showed up successful overmuch greater numbers to formed ballots early during nan coronavirus pandemic. 

'Republicans are voting earlier, and they're voting successful personification earlier,' said Michael McDonald, who heads up nan Election Lab astatine nan University of Florida. 

That's portion of what is down nan grounds early in-person elector turnout successful North Carolina and apt Georgia. 

While GOP voters are changing their behavior, nan group showing up are believed to beryllium partisan voters who made up their mind a agelong clip agone and consciousness assured casting their ballots early.

What remains to beryllium seen is really lower-propensity voters move retired successful nan coming days and weeks. Democrats still person an advantage pinch early voting, but it is not arsenic awesome arsenic it has been successful erstwhile predetermination cycles.

'We cognize that location are stories of problems pinch nan outsourcing of nan Republican get retired nan vote, elector mobilization efforts. This should thief them,' said McDonald. 

'Every 1 of these group who votes, nan campaigns tin scratch disconnected their lists, and they tin move down further into nan list,' he explained.

In North Carolina, much than 1.3 cardinal group person already voted. 

Democrats still person a flimsy advantage pinch much than 483,000 Democrats having already formed ballots compared to nan 463,000 Republicans. Some 427,000 unaffiliated voters person besides formed ballots.

In Georgia, much than 1.7 cardinal voters person already formed ballots successful nan 2024 election. While nan predetermination information does not break down nan ballots successful nan authorities by party, nan authorities has been breaking early-voting records. 

Analysis by Fair Fight Action, nan statement founded by Stacey Abrams, of nan first week of early voting successful Georgia noted location has been a monolithic displacement to early in-person voting successful nan authorities from vote-by-mail. There was besides a displacement successful Republican voting patterns.

It comes arsenic nan messaging from Republicans, particularly Donald Trump, has changed from nan erstwhile elections. Instead of disparaging early voting, nan ex-president and different statement officials are now encouraging GOP voters to get retired early. 

But astatine nan aforesaid time, Fair Fight Action estimated location are a number of voters leaving nan sidelines successful 2024. 

Some 71,000 Georgians who were registered but didn't ballot successful 2020 already formed ballots this twelvemonth successful nan first week of early voting nan study found. They judge among those recently progressive voters, Democrats clasp an edge.

It besides suggested among nan recently registered voters now casting ballots, they thin much toward Democrats than Republicans astatine this time. 

 However, nan statement believes nan authorities is highly competitive. 

Democrats clasp an advantage erstwhile it comes to casting ballots by message which Republicans person not taken advantage of to nan aforesaid extent. 

The battleground authorities of Pennsylvania is 1 that highlights this spread successful early voting habits because it is nan only battleground conscionable has mail-in early voting. 

It does not person in-person early voting, though voters tin return mailed ballots in-person. Democrats location person a lopsided advantage pinch mail-in voting successful nan state.

According to Tom Bonier of TargetSmart, which has done early ballot modeling, Democrats dominated vote-by-mail successful Pennsylvania and while it has shifted immoderate truthful acold successful 2020, it has not changed that overmuch truthful acold successful 2024.

'While nan run is pushing them to spell retired and vote-by-mail, you're not seeing it there,' he said. 

TargetSmart's modeling shows Democrats successful Pennsylvania person formed much than 588,000 of nan ballots truthful far. Republicans person only formed 270,000. 

However, wide Bonier warns study of early voting information is ever challenging.

 'Good early voting study depends upon measuring chapeau we're seeing against benchmarks of past precedent aliases expectations,' Bonier said. 'And past precedent is conscionable blown retired of nan h2o this cycle.' 

 He noted astir two-thirds of voters formed ballots earlier Election Day 4 years agone amid nan pandemic, but nan expectations are little for early voting this goround.