The economy is a priority for Americans as they head to the polls. Here's what's really going on behind the numbers.

• Polling suggests nan system is important to voters successful this year's statesmanlike election.
• The system is doing good crossed a wide assortment of metrics.
• But location are immoderate anemic points — for illustration a increasing national indebtedness load.

Election Day is little than 2 weeks away, and the economy is apical of mind for galore Americans.

Twenty-eight percent of apt voters successful a poll from The New York Times/Siena College from September 29 to October 6 said nan system was nan "most important" rumor for their vote, which was nan highest stock among each issues. A Pew Research Center study from August 26 to September 2 recovered that among registered voters, 68% of Kamala Harris supporters and 93% of Donald Trump supporters said nan system is "very important" to their vote.

Additionally, an Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research canvass conducted successful October recovered registered voters were astir divided connected who they thought would do a amended occupation handling different areas of nan economy, specified arsenic jobs and unemployment.

The bully news is that nan system is broadly doing beautiful good these days.

"We've seen caller highs for nan banal market's awesome averages, falling inflation, nan Federal Reserve shifting into easing mode and a occupation marketplace adjacent to nan level associated pinch afloat employment," Mark Hamrick, a elder economical expert astatine nan financial services company Bankrate, said successful a caller commentary.

While information suggests nan US system is robust, Americans whitethorn not agree. The scale of current economical conditions from nan University of Michigan's Surveys of Consumers has stayed stubbornly debased passim nan pandemic recovery.

Kurt Reiman, cohead of ElectionWatch astatine UBS Global Wealth Management, told Business Insider that he doesn't deliberation group consciousness "euphoric" astir nan economy. "Voters are reminded regular of nan precocious value of equipment and services — whether they're renewing their car aliases location insurance, aliases they're going to nan market store," Reiman said.

They're not wholly disconnected base. There are a fewer less-rosy information points retired there, for illustration rising semipermanent unemployment and a historically precocious level of national debt.

As group get fresh to caput to polling locations aliases ballot by mail, here's really nan US system has been looking.

The unemployment complaint has been nether 5% since September 2021

After it roseate to astir 15% during nan tallness of nan early pandemic successful April 2020, nan unemployment complaint has fallen to historically debased rates. Even though nan unemployment complaint ticked up to 4.3% this past July — nan highest complaint since October 2021 — it has dropped since.

While unemployment remains low, nan mean clip unemployed workers were retired of a occupation accrued to 22.6 weeks successful September. So, those retired of activity are spending much clip looking for their adjacent job.

Job gains person cooled but stay strong

The system keeps adding jobs, but nan labour marketplace has slowed from its red-hot pandemic recovery.

The cooler-but-strong job maturation is 1 denotation that nan US has continued to debar a recession — nan past 1 being successful 2020.

There aren't arsenic galore occupation openings per unemployed personification arsenic a fewer years ago

One cardinal measurement of nan labour marketplace has been turning against occupation seekers. The number of occupation openings per unemployed personification roseate to a record-high ratio successful 2022 during nan Great Resignation but has declined to 1.1 openings per unemployed personification successful August and looks much for illustration pre-pandemic levels.

It's not intolerable to find a job, though; Hamrick said location is "still a reasonable chance that personification who's going to beryllium a occupation seeker will person a measurement of success" depending connected their assemblage and location.

The ostentation complaint has slowed dramatically

Inflation has been mostly slowing down aft spiking successful 2021 and 2022 based connected year-over-year increases successful nan user value index.

While ostentation has slowed, Hamrick said consumers consciousness constrained by still-high prices. However, Hamrick said, "Americans will proceed to claw backmost some" mislaid buying powerfulness arsenic agelong arsenic ostentation continues to settee down while nan occupation marketplace holds up.

Wages person been catching up, and existent wages, which are adjusted for inflation, grew 1.5% successful September from a twelvemonth ago.

The Federal Reserve has targeted a soft landing wherever ostentation comes down without wide layoffs. So far, that seems to beryllium happening. Additionally, nan Fed trim liking rates successful September — nan first trim successful 4 years. There's a high chance it will determine to do a smaller trim successful November, depending connected really nan information looks and different factors.

Real disposable personal income per capita has been looking healthy

Real disposable individual income per capita — a wide utilized measurement of nan money group person to walk aliases prevention — spiked successful nan early pandemic owed to stimulus checks successful 2020 and 2021 and nan expanded kid taxation credits for nan 2021 taxation year.

While existent disposable individual income per capita cooled disconnected arsenic ostentation accelerated successful 2022, it has been gradually rising — and is supra wherever it was earlier nan pandemic and adjacent to nan pre-pandemic maturation trend.

The S&P 500 successful 2024 has deed respective all-time highs

During 2024, nan S&P 500 has been historically precocious aggregate times. MarketWatch reported it has deed 47 grounds highs this year. This scale of ample publically traded US companies reflects firm America doing rather well, and nan rising figures whitethorn beryllium bully for people's status savings portfolios.

Reiman chalks it up to beardown user spending, slowing inflation, and little liking rates starring to higher firm profits and valuations.

Confidence among home builders is still debased compared to caller years

While nan labour marketplace is showing a batch of strength, nan lodging marketplace is 1 area of nan system wherever location are immoderate concerns. More single-family builders are emotion amended astir lodging than a fewer months agone but are falling short of nan assurance seen a mates of years ago. That's based connected nan NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index, which tracks nan wellness of nan single-family lodging market.

The index, based connected what single-family builders surveyed reported, was a not-too-confident reference of 43 retired of 100 successful October.

Federal nationalist indebtedness arsenic a stock of GDP is elevated

Reiman said nan Biden administration will beryllium "handing disconnected an system pinch higher levels of indebtedness than erstwhile taking office." Federal indebtedness is precocious compared to GDP, moreover looking beyond nan spike of nan indebtedness arsenic a stock of GDP during nan pandemic.

While national indebtedness arsenic a stock of GDP was somewhat supra 100% earlier nan pandemic, caller figures are overmuch higher than successful nan past. Federal indebtedness was 120% of GDP successful nan 2nd 4th of this year. In nan agelong run, a precocious debt-to-GDP ratio whitethorn lead to costly liking costs and early taxation hikes aliases spending cuts.