Who's in charge: The muddy history of the 50-50 Senate

There’s an aged saw successful shot which says that nan "tie goes to nan runner."

If only it were that elemental successful nan United States Senate.

There is simply a very existent chance that nan Senate could beryllium tied astatine 50-50 successful nan 119th Congress which originates successful January.

The Senate representation successful play adjacent week decidedly favors Republicans. Democrats presently clasp a 51-49 edge. There are 4 independent senators who "caucus" pinch the Democrats, giving them operational control.

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It’s wide believed that nan statement which controls nan vice presidency automatically secures power of nan Senate. But that’s acold from automatic. It makes consciousness that nan vice president – who Constitutionally serves arsenic nan President of nan Senate and whitethorn break ties – should efficaciously assistance Senate power to his aliases her party. There person been 2 Senate ties successful caller history. One Senate necktie was successful 2001. The different 1 was successful 2021-2023. But what unfolded successful those instances is important to understand why awarding Senate power to nan statement of nan vice presidency is not etched connected a chromatic tablet. Moreover, those circumstances could thief explicate why it mightiness beryllium problematic to settee which statement mightiness power nan Senate successful 2025.

Let’s first rewind.

There was a necktie successful nan Senate successful 1881. There’s really immoderate absorbing infighting and resignations of senators which explains nan governmental machinations of that circumstance. There was besides a necktie successful 1954  – and aggregate switches successful nan majority/minority of senators betwixt 1953-1955. That’s partially owed to nan decease of 9 senators complete a short play of time.

There person been fewer instances successful American history successful which nan Senate's partisan creation has been evenly split. Read connected to spot what happens erstwhile specified a governmental crossroads is reached. (Celal Gunes/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images)

There person been 2 ties successful nan early 21st Century. But while 1 statement aliases nan different often had much members than nan different side, location was nary specified point arsenic a "Majority Leader" aliases "Minority Leader" until nan early 20th Century. Senators regarded nan institution arsenic a assemblage of equals. So location was nary logic to designate personification arsenic "in charge." But that changed a small much than 100 years ago, launching nan modern Senate.

In precocious 2000, nan Senate arrived astatine its first necktie successful decades astatine 50-50. The last title called was a triumph by Sen. Maria Cantwell, D-Wash., complete precocious Sen. Slade Gorton, R-Wash., successful December. Keep successful mind that 2000 was besides nan twelvemonth of nan Florida predetermination conflict involving nan presidency. President George W. Bush topped Vice President Al Gore. Then-Senate Majority Leader Trent Lott, R-Miss., and then-Senate Minority Leader Tom Daschle, D-S.D., brokered a power-sharing arrangement. The 50-50 split, coupled pinch Vice President Dick Cheney, propelled Republicans into nan majority. Lott was successful charge. But nan woody afforded Daschle immoderate level powers not typically granted to nan Minority Leader. Republicans would chair Senate committees. But rank by Democrats connected each committee was level pinch nan GOP.

The pact besides included a cardinal rider: If 1 broadside aliases nan different really garnered a general mostly astatine immoderate clip during nan 107th Congress, past nan woody was disconnected and that statement genuinely wielded a mostly of nan Senate.

The level of comity betwixt Lott and Daschle was instrumental to this agreement. And, each 100 senators agreed to nan powerfulness sharing arrangement. One mightiness inquire why everyone was connected board? Lott and Daschle earned nan assurance of their members. Plus, Republicans knew that Democrats would outright artifact ANYTHING if they weren’t granted a capable voice. Meantime, Democrats agreed to nan pact because nan replacement meant they were relegated to nan minority. Under these circumstances they were successful nan number – but pinch an asterisk.

Lott’s reed-thin mostly was short-lived. By springtime, precocious Sen. Jim Jeffords, I-Vt., dropped his rank pinch nan GOP. Jeffords became an independent and elected to caucus pinch nan Democrats. Jeffords' maneuver instantly propelled Daschle to Majority Leader.

Control of nan Senate for nan 117th Congress wasn’t settled until early 2021. That’s erstwhile Sen. Raphael Warnock, D-Ga., defeated then-Sen. Kelly Loeffler, R-Ga., to make it a 50-50 tie. President Biden captured nan Presidency. Republicans were leery of being unopen retired for illustration nan Democrats worried successful 2001. No fool he, Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., insisted connected nan aforesaid power-sharing statement hammered retired betwixt Lott and Daschle 2 decades earlier. Democrats would service arsenic nan mostly statement because of Vice President Harris. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., would beryllium astatine nan helm. But nan GOP would bask immoderate fruits of powerfulness successful nan minority, acknowledgment to nan 2001 deal.

On paper, partisan power of a 50-50 Senate is wished by who nan Vice President is: successful this case, "Vice President J.D. Vance" presiding complete an evenly-split enclosure would tilt power to Republicans. "Vice President Tim Walz" would do nan aforesaid for Democrats. (AP/Matt Rourke)

So what happens if there’s a necktie successful 2025?

The Senate is steeped successful civilization and tradition. So if there’s a 50-50 deadlock, there’s a bully chance a "Vice President Tim Walz" intends Democrats are successful charge. The aforesaid for nan GOP if there’s a "Vice President JD Vance." But we’re operating successful a different governmental ambiance these days. Granted, nan power-sharing arrangements of 2001 and 2021 some emerged aft disputed statesmanlike elections. There was an liking successful some instances to calm nan waters successful some of those episodes. But this clip around? Who knows.

What other could muddy nan waters? Democrats are pouring money into Nebraska to boost independent Dan Osborn successful his quest to conclusion Sen. Deb Fischer, R-Neb. Osborn has made nan title overmuch person than expected. But Osborn besides says he won’t caucus pinch either party. That could negate nan chances of nan tie. It besides raises nan mobility astir wherever nan Senate mightiness position Osborn’s table successful nan enclosure and whether he would service connected immoderate committees. Independent senators person historically caucused pinch 1 broadside aliases nan other.

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Then there’s nan mobility astir conscionable really restive senators whitethorn beryllium aft nan election. McConnell is relinquishing his activity role. The declared candidates to win him are Senate Minority Whip John Thune, R-S.D., erstwhile Senate Majority Whip John Cornyn, R-Tex., and Sen. Rick Scott, R-Fla. It’s imaginable different senators could beryllium successful play, too.

Sen. Mike Lee, R-Utah, has pushed nan GOP activity candidates to change soul convention rules and weaken nan Republican leader. It’s acold from clear that location will beryllium an appetite for bipartisanship and comity successful nan caller Congress if there’s a Senate tie.

And, arsenic successful 2000 and 2020, what if there’s disagreement astir whether Harris aliases former President Trump won nan presidency? That could dictate whether senators are consenting to grant nan "majority" to 1 broadside aliases nan different if it’s not definite if Walz aliases Vance is Vice President.

Senate power successful nan 119th Congress whitethorn besides beryllium wished by nan fates of susceptible Republican Sens. Ted Cruz of Texas and Deb Fischer of Nebraska. (Reuters/Go Nakamura/AP/Stephanie Scarbrough)

And a footnote connected nan powerfulness of nan Vice President to break ties: nan Vice President is not required to ballot to break a tie. If there’s a 50-50 ballot connected a measure aliases an amendment successful nan Senate, by rule, a necktie loses. So if a ballot is tied, nan Vice President won’t ballot if nan management aliases statement wants nan rumor to spell down to defeat. There’s nary logic to formed a "nay" ballot to heap connected pinch nan loss.

That intends nan Vice President only votes successful nan affirmative. So if a necktie ballot intends nan rumor is failing – and nan President and nan Vice President want nan rumor to spell successful nan different guidance – he aliases she votes "aye." That makes it 51-50 – approving nan amendment aliases legislation.

A reminder that nan Vice President CANNOT ballot if nan ballot is 49 yeas to 50 nays. That’s not a tie. Thus nan Vice President isn’t afforded a ballot to separator nan tally to 50-50.

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So, contempt nan historical precedent of nan vice president dictating which statement will power nan Senate, nan powerfulness of nan vice president is really beautiful limited.

Which brings america backmost to our thesis: When it comes to Senate control, obscurity is it written that a "tie goes to nan runner." Or successful this case, nan statement of nan vice president. And that’s why nan imaginable of a divided Senate successful 2025 – amid a hyper volatile governmental ambiance – could make it difficult to benignant retired which statement runs nan place.