Why the race isn't as close as you think: With one week to go, analyst CRAIG KESHISHIAN predicts the polls are missing a hidden voter surge

In nan last week of this 'dead heat' statesmanlike election, I americium reminded of Ronald Reagan's landslide 1980 victory.

Then arsenic now, President Jimmy Carter was polling neck-and-neck pinch his Republican challenger.

A Gallup canvass showed Carter up 1 percent constituent nationally successful precocious October. Only 4 days earlier nan vote, a CBS News/New York Times study showed nan title to beryllium conscionable arsenic close.

Then nan bottommost dropped retired of Carter's run - and Reagan won by astir 10 points successful nan celebrated vote, and a staggering 489 to 49 successful nan Electoral College.

I was a young run expert astatine nan time, but I'd later subordinate Reagan's vaunted White House governmental strategy squad and we analyzed what drove nan landslide.

We discovered thousands of antecedently overlooked Americans, surviving successful agrarian and suburban communities — folks who worked 40-hour weeks, lifted nan freight, paid nan bills and ran nan mini businesses.

Their voices weren't regularly heard successful nan halls of powerfulness and didn't needfully ballot successful each election.

They came to beryllium known arsenic 'The Silent Majority'.

These men and women were not 'country club' Republicans. Many were culturally blimpish Democrats aliases independents who were fed up pinch rampant inflation, shuttered factories, grounded overseas argumentation and surging crime.

That 'Silent Majority' changed nan people of history.

Now, much than 4 decades later and conscionable 7 days from nan 2024 vote, nan signs are telling maine that history whitethorn beryllium repeating itself…

SUN BELT REPUBLICAN SURGE

Americans surviving successful Nevada and Arizona person had a front-row spot to nan effect of wide forbidden migration nether nan Biden-Harris administration.

In some of these states, registered Republican voters person formed much early ballots than registered Democrats — reversing a historical Democratic advantage.

Of course, these early ballots do not uncover existent ballot numbers, arsenic they are not opened until Election Day. But this changing move can't beryllium ignored.

As of Sunday, Republicans held a 33,500 ballot lead aliases 5.2 percent of nan full early vote.

Last week, Jon Ralston, editor of nan Nevada Independent, described nan consequence arsenic 'unheard of astatine this constituent successful immoderate different statesmanlike cycle' and said location is 'no bully news' successful nan figures for Democrats.

In Arizona, it's moreover bleaker for Democrats.

Republicans returned astir 42 percent of nan statewide early ballots by Monday, compared to conscionable complete 35 percent from Democrats and 23 percent from independents.

This represents astir a 9-point plaything successful nan GOP's favour from nan 2020 election.

The latest Trafalgar Poll released Monday provides yet different scale pinch which to measure this Arizona race: Trump is leading Harris — 48 to 46 percent.

At this constituent successful nan title 2016, Hillary Clinton held an mean 1.8 percent advantage — and she yet mislaid by 1.5 points.

STORM VICTIMS RALLY

In North Carolina, meanwhile, Republicans are besides outpacing Democrats successful nan return of early ballots.

After Hurricane Helene decimated nan heavy Republican occidental region of nan authorities past month, I was concerned that North Carolina whitethorn become a liability for Trump because his supporters whitethorn beryllium indisposed to vote.

With group displaced, their homes destroyed and their lives upended, you'd presume that voting would beryllium nan past point connected their minds.

But nan other has occurred.

A record-breaking 2.8 cardinal group successful North Carolina person formed early ballots - pinch tens of thousands of those votes coming retired of nan storm-ravaged west.

As of past week, voters successful nan 25 counties successful nan FEMA-designated disaster area submitted 0.5 percent much ballots than they had successful 2020.

What explains this benignant of fortitude?

While walking done nan authorities earlier this month, I was told by Victoria and William McKinley from weather-beaten Beech Mountain successful Avery County that they would 'crawl complete surgery solid to ballot for Trump.'

That's what we pollsters telephone 'voter intensity', a imaginable denotation of a Silent Majority stirred to action.

In adjacent Georgia, which was besides impacted by Hurricane Helene, there's been a likewise robust early elector turnout.

Trump presently holds flimsy leads successful nan polls successful some Georgia and North Carolina

THE 'KEY' KEYSTONE STATE

One of nan astir difficult states to analyze, however, is possibly nan astir captious successful nan election.

If Trump loses successful Pennsylvania, his way to triumph successful nan electoral assemblage is problematized significantly.

Currently, early elector returns successful nan Keystone State favour nan Democrats - but not by arsenic overmuch arsenic 4 years ago.

In 2020, nan Democrats commanded astir 70 percent of nan early ballot astatine this constituent successful nan election, while registered Republicans made up only 20 percent of nan tally.

Today, registered Democrats person formed astir 60 percent of nan early ballot and nan Republicans person notched 30 percent.

It's hardly a game-changer but it does people a important improvement.

And erstwhile those statistic are paired pinch nationalist sentiment surveys and anecdotal evidence, it leads maine to judge location is surging support for Trump successful nan state.

Four years ago, Biden held a astir four-point advantage present and successful 2016 Hillary Clinton led by 5 points – but Trump is presently up by a slim 0.5 percent.

That's significant. And don't return my connection for it.

Late past week, Pennsylvania Democratic Senator John Fetterman raised siren complete Trump's 'special connection' pinch nan group of his state.

The 'intensity' of support for Trump successful his authorities is 'astonishing,' he told nan New York Times.

'It's nan benignant of point that has taken connected its ain life,' he said. 'That doesn't mean that I respect it. It's conscionable that it's real.'

Meanwhile, nan state's seasoned Democratic Senator, Bob Casey, who is moving for re-election successful a competitory race, is airing run ads touting his moving narration pinch Trump.

When 2 knowledgeable lawmakers opportunity their force is showing strength, it pays to return notice.

DEMOCRATIC ALLIES WAVER

Finally, location are 2 intriguing developments retired of Democratic strongholds successful disparate parts of nan county.

Firstly, successful Michigan – different captious prize successful this election. Trump won it successful 2016 by a whisker. Biden reclaimed it successful 2020.

Here, too, early voting has surged, but nan authorities does not merchandise accusation connected nan statement affiliation of those casting early ballots.

However, this is logic to fishy that Democratic elector enthusiasm successful nan authorities is somewhat dimmed.

In a caller study by seasoned pollster John Zogby and nan Arab American Institute, Trump jumps retired to a 46 to 42 percent lead complete Harris among apt Arab-American voters successful nan state.

That's a large deal, arsenic Michigan is location to nan largest attraction of Arab-Americans successful nan US, pinch a state-wide organization estimated to beryllium upwards of 200,000.

This voting bloc – usually considered a judge stake for Democrats – now appears to beryllium going soft connected Harris, put disconnected by nan existent administration's continued support for Israel.

Meanwhile, polling besides shows achromatic and Hispanic voters favoring Trump by historical margins. Harris knows this, hence her accrued efforts successful caller weeks to woo achromatic antheral voters pinch promises of handouts.

I'm besides looking astatine Miami-Dade County, successful southeast Florida, a traditionally Democratic stronghold - yet registered Republicans successful nan region presently clasp a astir 30,000 early ballot lead.

So, what's happening present and astir nan country? Why are antecedently reliable groups slipping distant from Democrats? Why is Harris losing accepted advantages?

I judge location is simply a displacement underway that nan polls person not yet picked up on.

Even arsenic a polling analyst, I must admit that nan forecasting powerfulness of nationalist sentiment surveys successful America is limited. Polls tin beryllium flawed done chance, incompetence aliases moreover deception.

There's different 'metric' that I've recovered useful – and it's based connected 40 years of acquisition measuring nan attitudes of nan American group and getting a consciousness of what they really think.

And it's starting to 'feel' for illustration 1980 each complete again.