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Anthony Richardson has won nan past 3 games he started for nan Indianapolis Colts. Ultimately, that’s each that matters.
But, hoooo buddy, things person not been awesome for 2023’s 4th wide draught pick. The electrical dual threat passer has embodied each nan concerns that followed him from nan University of Florida and passim his rookie play arsenic a pro. He’s had a fistful of sparkling moments but respective much that person formed a pall complete his 2024. He’s been injured and, much importantly, inaccurate. His 48.5 percent completion complaint is worst successful nan league, 10 points little than 31st-place Jacoby Brissett.
Some of that tin beryllium traced to his predilection for large throws, arsenic his 12.0 aerial yards per toss are by acold nan astir among starting quarterbacks. But Joe Flacco, nan seasoned who has taken nan section successful Richardson’s stead, has nan league’s sixth-longest mean walk region and is still managing to complete astir 66 percent of his attempts successful nan aforesaid offense. Clearly, thing isn’t moving here.
That’s a unsmooth scene. Is it unsmooth capable to make Richardson 2024’s worst starting backmost done 7 weeks? Fortunately, we’ve sewage immoderate precocious stats to thief fig that out.
Expected points added (EPA) is simply a conception that’s been astir since 1970. It’s efficaciously a comparison betwixt what an mean backmost could beryllium expected to do connected a definite down and what he really did — and really it accrued his team’s chances of scoring. The exemplary we usage comes from The Athletic’s Ben Baldwin and his RBSDM.com website, which is some wildly useful AND includes adjusted EPA, which accounts for protect strength. It considers nan effect of penalties and does not negatively effect passers for fumbles aft a completion.
The different portion of nan puzzle is completion percent complete expected (CPOE), which is beautiful overmuch what it sounds like. It’s a comparison of each nan completions a backmost would beryllium expected to make versus nan ones he really did. Like EPA, it tin veer into nan negatives and higher is better. So if you floor plan each 32 superior quarterbacks — nan ones who played astatine slightest 112 snaps done 7 weeks — you get a floor plan that looks for illustration this:
via rbsdm.comWell, that’s not awesome for Anthony Richardson. Try to disagreement that chart into tiers and you get thing for illustration this:
via rbsdm.com and nan authorLet’s spot really this week’s rankings shook out.
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1. Jayden Daniels, Washington Commanders: 0.205 EPA+CPOE composite
Daniels’s Week 7 lasted only 2 passes acknowledgment to a rib injury. It didn’t matter because he was playing nan Carolina Panthers. We’ll spot really he holds up against existent shot teams successful nan future.
Ed Mulholland-Imagn Images
2. Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens: 0.177 EPA+CPOE composite
3. Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills: 0.172
4. Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals: 0.166
To nary one’s surprise, these quarterbacks entering their NFL primes stay very, very good. Jackson threw 4 touchdown passes against nan Buccaneers earlier nan 3rd 4th could extremity (and added a 5th later). Allen was Sunday’s only 300-yard passer en way to turning a 10-0 shortage into a 34-10 triumph complete nan Titans. Burrow didn’t person excessively dense a assistance to hit nan Browns, but still rode his apical wideouts to a brace of game-deciding touchdowns.
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5. Joe Flacco, Indianapolis Colts: 0.159 EPA+CPOE composite
6. Jared Goff, Detroit Lions: 0.149
7. Derek Carr, New Orleans Saints: 0.144
Goff ripped nan Vikings’ unit to shreds to technologist a comeback triumph successful Minnesota. Flacco and Carr each took a backseat to underwhelming young quarterbacks, though successful Carr’s lawsuit it was owed to injury. Those 2 veterans are apt to backslide if/when they return to nan lineup. Goff, connected nan different hand, conscionable tore up what had been nan league’s apical passing defense.
Sep 6, 2024; Sao Paulo, BRA; Philadelphia Eagles backmost Jalen Hurts (1) scrambles against Green Bay Packers protect extremity Kingsley Enagbare (55) during nan first half astatine Neo Quimica Arena. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-Imagn Images
8. Baker Mayfield, Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 0.120 EPA+CPOE composite
9. Brock Purdy, San Francisco 49ers: 0.119
10. Sam Darnold, Minnesota Vikings: 0.116
11. Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles: 0.108
12. Geno Smith, Seattle Seahawks: 0.107
13. Kirk Cousins, Atlanta Falcons: 0.105
14. Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs: 0.102
15. Justin Fields, Pittsburgh Steelers: 0.098
16. Kyler Murray, Arizona Cardinals: 0.097
17. Jordan Love, Green Bay Packers: 0.092
Fields brought slightly-above-average worth to nan lineup and still coiled up replaced by Russell Wilson. It was nan correct move; Wilson’s composite against a coagulated Jets defense successful Week 7 was a tidy 0.155.
Smith was different Sunday standout among this group, efficiently throwing a brace of touchdowns without a turnover to propulsion distant from Cousins (three turnovers, 1 touchdown) successful Atlanta. Love remains a chaos engine, but erstwhile things are good… brother/sister, they are astounding.
Tork Mason/Green Bay Press-Gazette via nan USA TODAY NETWORK-Wisconsin-Imagn Images
18. Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers: 0.084 EPA+CPOE composite
19. Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars: 0.080
20. Caleb Williams, Chicago Bears: 0.075
21. C.J. Stroud, Houston Texans: 0.072
Herbert and Lawrence person some struggled pinch anemic receiving corps — Herbert especially. Williams and Stroud haven’t had that problem. Stroud was held to 1 of his worst performances arsenic a pro against nan Packers successful Week 7. Williams will person to look that portion doubly arsenic he tries to support his rookie of nan twelvemonth momentum building.
Photo by Luke Hales/Getty Images
22. Aaron Rodgers, New York Jets: 0.049 EPA+CPOE composite
23. Will Levis, Tennessee Titans: 0.043
24. Daniel Jones, New York Giants: 0.042
25. Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys: 0.041
26. Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams: 0.031
27. Andy Dalton, Carolina Panthers: 0.028
The Jets person built their lineup astir a backmost who is simply a important upgrade but still not a apical 20 quarterback, which says so, truthful overmuch astir nan franchise. Prescott is nan highest paid subordinate successful nan NFL and, acknowledgment to a constricted supporting cast, a below-average quarterback.
Stafford’s twilight is being spent down an injury-cursed violative statement without his apical 2 wideouts. Los Angeles still has humble postseason hopes, but they’re fading quickly.
Joe Nicholson-Imagn Images
28. Gardner Minshew II, Las Vegas Raiders: 0.018 EPA+CPOE composite
29. Deshaun Watson, Cleveland Browns: 0.014
30. Jacoby Brissett, New England Patriots: 0.008
31. Bo Nix, Denver Broncos: 0.005
Nix’s closest comparisons this play are 2 journeymen who’d been replaced by younger quarterbacks and a historically bad Browns quarterback. Not great! Nix occasionally shows flashes of brilliance but his downfield passing remains a concern, arsenic does abrupt lapses you wouldn’t expect from a feline who played 61 games of Power 5 assemblage football.
Marc Lebryk-Imagn Images
32. Anthony Richardson, Indianapolis Colts: -0.036 EPA+CPOE composite
Richardson completed 10 of 24 passes successful Week 7. He was facing nan league’s 16th-ranked passing defense. Only 1 Colt had much than 30 receiving yards. But hey, he’s move arsenic a runner, provided he tin enactment patient aft getting wounded connected designed runs aggregate times successful a profession that has yet to scope its two-year mark.
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