Colin Allred is in a tight race with Ted Cruz. Here's how he's planning to become Texas' first Democratic senator in decades.

• The marquee Senate title betwixt Colin Allred and Ted Cruz could uncover a batch astir Texas' identity.
• The Lone Star State has been a GOP bastion for decades, but voting shifts are changing that dynamic.
• BI said pinch Colin Allred successful Houston astir nan title and really he views Cruz's tenure successful office.

For decades, Democrats person sought to reclaim their erstwhile glory successful Texas, but they've many times travel up short.

The statement hasn't won a statewide title successful nan Lone Star State since 1994, which has mostly deprived it of nan benignant of chair that Republicans person cultivated for years done their power of authorities government.

So erstwhile Rep. Colin Allred — a three-term lawmaker who represents nan Dallas-area 32nd Congressional District — entered this year's Senate title against two-term Republican Sen. Ted Cruz, galore Democrats felt that his bipartisan credentials would bolster his run.

Allred, 41, believes that he tin beryllium a alteration supplier for Texas. And pinch little than a week to spell earlier nan election, he remains locked successful a competitory title pinch nan 53-year-old Cruz.

A precocious October New York Times/Siena College survey showed Cruz pinch a four-point separator complete Allred (50% to 46%) among apt voters, but successful nan aforesaid poll, erstwhile President Donald Trump led Vice President Kamala Harris by 10 points (52% to 42%). And other polls of nan race, including ones from Marist College, Morning Consult, and nan University of Houston Hobby School of Public Affairs, each showed Cruz pinch single-digit leads.

The competitiveness of nan title led nan Senate Majority PAC — nan Democratic governmental action committee tied to Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer of New York — to pour $5 cardinal into nan contest successful caller days, arsenic nan Texas title is now wide viewed arsenic nan party's champion opportunity to flip a reddish spot this year. In total, Allred has raised much than $80 cardinal for nan Senate race, according to his campaign.

But 1 cardinal truth remains: Allred will person to flooded nan state's Republican thin successful bid to oust Cruz.

Reproductive authorities and nan economy

I sat down pinch Allred earlier a caller artifact locomotion kickoff arena successful Houston, wherever nan erstwhile NFL subordinate and civilian authorities lawyer laid retired his lawsuit against Cruz's reelection bid.

But thing important stuck retired during our conversation.

In nan past, red-state Democrats often shied distant from speaking retired excessively forcefully regarding reproductive rights. However, aft Roe v. Wade was overturned by nan US Supreme Court, on pinch nan transition of Texas' strict abortion ban, Allred lambasted "extremism" that he based on would earnestly impact nan economy.

In nan Times/Siena poll, apt voters successful Texas classed nan system arsenic their apical issue, pinch 27% of respondents expressing this opinion. (The second-and- 3rd classed issues were migration and abortion, pinch 15% support for each issue.)

"The individual stories of group denied miscarriage attraction aliases denied attraction erstwhile pregnancies weren't viable and having to time off nan authorities are horrific," Allred told maine aft he said astatine a reproductive rights-focused rally headlined by Harris, which besides featured an quality by Beyoncé. "I cognize galore of these women that person travel forward. It's personal. It's besides impacting each different facet of Texas life, from our aesculapian schools to our universities to our business climate."

The electoral map

In 2018, then-Rep. Beto O'Rourke traversed Texas during his Senate run and successful nan process visited each of nan state's 254 counties.

While Cruz yet won, he bested O'Rourke by only 2.6 percent points, aliases by astir 215,000 votes retired of much than 8.3 cardinal ballots cast.

O'Rourke's run that twelvemonth worked to energize Democratic voters — pinch a attraction connected young and progressive voters — and his municipality hallway events became a signature portion of his campaign.

Allred's run attack is simply a spot different than nan 1 pursued by O'Rourke, who represented nan El Paso area successful Congress from 2013 until 2019. He's seeking to maximize Democratic turnout arsenic well, but he's conducted superior outreach to independents and Republicans to beryllium a portion of his moderate-minded campaign.

"I person a grounds of being nan astir bipartisan Texan successful Congress," he told maine during our conversation.

It's nan benignant of ethos that Allred takes pinch him connected nan run way crossed Texas, a behemoth of a authorities that contains immense cities and scores of medium-sized and smaller cities and towns successful between. It tin return astir thirteen hours to thrust crossed Texas from nan eastbound to nan west.

"This is simply a monolithic state, and what happens successful 1 portion of nan authorities is not ever known successful nan different portion of nan state," Allred told me, adding of his experience: "I don't travel crossed immoderate Texans who are looking for a handout, but I travel crossed Texans who are looking for personification who's going to beryllium connected their side."

Democrats successful Texas already execute powerfully successful cities for illustration Austin, Dallas, Houston, and San Antonio. But successful nan Trump era, Democrats person besides increasingly won complete much suburban voters, a arena that has helped nan statement immensely successful different Sun Belt states for illustration Arizona and Georgia. And if Allred is to conclusion Cruz, he'll person to put up highly beardown numbers pinch suburban voters crossed nan board.

Mark P. Jones, a governmental subject professor astatine Rice University, told maine successful a question and reply that Cruz is successful a tougher spot compared to different Texas Republicans because he lacks important "crossover" support. Republicans for decades person flexed their governmental musculus successful nan authorities based connected their beardown support from nan statement religious and conservative-leaning independents.

But Cruz, a onetime GOP statesmanlike candidate, has trim a polarizing floor plan some successful Texas and connected nan nationalist stage.

"He doesn't person overmuch entreaty to nan benignant of soft Republicans, independents, and moderate-to-conservative Democrats successful nan aforesaid measurement that Gov. Greg Abbott aliases Sen. John Cornyn do," Jones said. "And it's not a ample amount, but he starts disconnected astatine a disadvantage successful that he needs to beautiful overmuch triumph each of nan Republican ballot and make judge that Republicans move out."

Cruz 'too small' for Texas

On nan run trail, Allred has targeted Cruz's infamous 2021 travel to Cancún, Mexico, which occurred while many Texans were without power owed to a terrible wintertime storm.

During our conversation, Allred depicted Cruz arsenic personification who doesn't person a broader imagination for 1 of nan fastest-growing states successful nan country, which now boasts complete 30 cardinal residents.

Business Insider has reached retired to nan Cruz run for comment.

"Texas is incredibly divers and dynamic, but we person been governed by extremists who I deliberation person put astatine consequence each of nan positives astir our state," Allred told me. "Ted Cruz, successful particular, is personification who I deliberation is conscionable excessively mini for Texas. His imagination is excessively mini for us. And to me, it's benignant of nan other of nan Texas that I know."

Allred, who would beryllium nan first Black legislator from Texas should he conclusion Cruz, besides said astir nan difficulties of alteration successful a authorities wherever Republicans person agelong held a patient grip connected power.

"When you person a one-party norm authorities for truthful long, you tin get an belief that there's nary changing it," Allred told me. "There's ever a consciousness that we should person change. But tin we break through?"